545
FNUS73 KFGF 171156
FWSFGF

Spot Forecast for Shaw WPA...FWS
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
656 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please call the NWS in Grand Forks at 701-795-5127 for additional
information and monitor our website (www.weather.gov/fgf) or NOAA
All-Hazards Radio for the latest updates.

.DISCUSSION...

A few showers will pass through this morning, but a wetting rain
is unlikely (<20%). Thereafter, temperatures through the afternoon
will warm into the mid 80s. RH values will fall to near 30 percent,
with a low chance of temperatures warming slightly higher, which
would result in RH values falling between 25 - 30 percent. Winds
will be out of the south this morning, switching to the southwest
into the afternoon. Winds could gust up to 20 mph. Thunderstorms
are expected late this afternoon into the evening hours. Strong
winds of up to 70 mph and hail to quarter sized are the main
threats. Cooler temperatures and higher RH values will prevail on
Saturday, however stronger winds are anticipated, out of the west
with gusts of up to 40 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Slight
                    chance of showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest 15
                    to 20 mph late in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........11  13  16  21  26  40  43
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH
Weather type....                    RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH
Temp............71  75  79  81  83  85  83
RH..............59  48  40  37  33  31  32
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.14  15  15  16  16  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.0 4.2 5.7 7.3 8.4 6.7
Mixing wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Mixing wind spd.10  10  15  15  20  20  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    west late in the evening, then becoming west
                    around 10 mph with gusts to around 22 mph early
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
 expected near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 15 to 20 mph
shifting to the west late in the evening.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........46     59     75     90     71     69
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Temp............83     75     67     63     60     59
RH..............33     50     70     84     93     90
20 ft wind......S 10   SE 10  S 10   W 10   NW 10  W 10
20 ft wind gust.14     14     14     14     15     18
Mix hgt (ft)....6800   600    500    600    800    700
Mixing wind.....S 15   S 15   SW 20  W 15   W 15   W 15

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 32 mph increasing to around 25 mph with
                    gusts to around 36 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL. Mixing
winds........West 25 to 30 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph early in
the morning.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........62        40        19        25
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
Temp............56        56        62        65
RH..............89        74        52        39
20 FT wind......W 15G25   W 20G32   W 25G35   W 25G36
Mix hgt (ft)....1800      2900      5300      7200
Mixing wind.....W 25      W 35      W 35      W 40

$$
Forecaster...DJR/BR
Requested by...Terry Gwilliams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414492.0/FGF
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Terry_Gwilliams@fws.gov