487
FNUS73 KFGF 171120
FWSFGF

Spot Forecast for Caribou SE Pastures...MN DNR
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
620 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please call the NWS in Grand Forks at 701-795-5127 for additional
information and monitor our website (www.weather.gov/fgf) or NOAA
All-Hazards Radio for the latest updates.

.DISCUSSION...

A few showers are possible early this morning (20%), but wetting
rains are unlikely. The main rain and thunderstorm chances arrive
later this evening as a broken line of storms arrives from the
west. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe, with strong
winds of up to 70 mph and hail up to a quarter in size the main
threats. Temperatures today will be warm, with highs near 80.
RH values will remain above 40 percent. Southeast winds of
around 10 mph will shift slowly to the south through the
afternoon, gusting to 20 mph. Outside of thunderstorms, winds
overnight will be light, under 10 mph. Winds will significantly
increase on Saturday, and switch to the west. Gusts of up to 35 mph
are expected. RH values on Saturday will be a bit higher, remaining
closer to 50%.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight
                    chance of rain showers early in the morning,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    south late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....10900 knot-ft early in the morning increasing
                    to 66200 knot-ft in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........70  70  59  53  57  43  39  37  36  41
Weather cov.....SCH SCH                         SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW                          RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH
Temp............56  58  60  64  67  71  73  74  77  76
RH..............83  80  78  70  63  55  51  48  43  44
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.11  11  14  15  15  15  15  15  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.1
Mixing wind dir.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixing wind spd.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11  16  18  24  31  40  56  62  61  66

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms
                    through the night. Rain showers overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming around 5
                    mph overnight, then shifting to the south after
                    3 am. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 15 to 20 mph shifting to the south
                    around 10 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....49200 knot-ft early in the evening decreasing
                    to 3500 knot-ft late in the night.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........51     53     60     81     86     86
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Temp............76     71     64     61     60     57
RH..............46     59     75     84     87     96
20 ft wind......S 10   SE 10  SE 10  S 5    E 5    S 10
20 ft wind gust.14     13     13     13     12     14
Mix hgt (ft)....4100   600    500    400    500    400
Mixing wind.....SE 15  SE 15  SE 15  S 20   E 15   S 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..49     7      7      7      7      4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers
                    likely through the day. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    west 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 29 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 15 to 20 mph increasing to west
                    around 35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....6300 knot-ft early in the morning increasing to
                    93300 knot-ft in the afternoon increasing to
                    (117600 knot-ft) in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........80        71        65        62
Weather cov.....CHANCE    LIKELY    LIKELY    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
Temp............55        57        58        60
RH..............100       90        68        55
20 FT wind......S 10G14   SW 15G21  W 20G28   W 20G29
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2000      3400      5000
Mixing wind.....W 15      W 25      W 30      W 35
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6         45        93        149

$$
Forecaster...DJR/BR
Requested by...Jason Wollin
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414442.0/FGF
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jason.wollin@state.mn.us