Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
031 FXUS65 KFGZ 242130 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 230 PM MST Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern Arizona through Saturday. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend will arrive by Sunday, continuing through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough continues its trek across the state, bringing breezy winds and seasonable temperatures to northern Arizona today. The journey seems to have left the system a bit tired, leading to the tighter pressure gradients and stronger winds being delayed until later this evening and overnight. This will help limit the strength of the afternoon wind gusts today. Expect breezy south-southwest winds with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range. Winds remain elevated overnight for areas along and just downwind/northeast of high terrain. Temperatures cool briefly on Saturday, clocking in at near to five degrees below average. Despite the long haul, this elongated system will not provide a sip of refreshing water to dry northern Arizona during this leg of the race. Slightly stronger winds will impact northeast Arizona Saturday. With elevated winds gusts forecast to be between 30 to 40 mph, near critical fire weather conditions are expected, mainly for eastern and northeastern Arizona. Please practice caution if working or recreating outside this weekend. These winds have the potential to make a single spark go for a long run. Sunday into Next Week...High pressure will rapidly build over the region with an upper-level ridge forming across much of the western United States. A warming trend will accompany the ridge with each day seeing afternoon temperatures take slow, but steady steps upward. Average temperatures on Sunday afternoon will be close to average before becoming closer to five degrees above average for much of next week. Some models indicate another trough will displace the high pressure by the end of next week. However, other members show the ridge remaining in place, keeping the trough well north of Arizona. There is low certainty in what the weather pattern will look like a week from now. Regardless, the synoptic pattern is trending towards a more summer-like pattern in the long run. && .AVIATION...Friday 24/18Z through Saturday 25/18Z...MVFR conditions possible in HZ/FU in vicinity of KCMR, otherwise VFR. Winds S/SW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts before 03Z, then subsiding to 5-10 kts. SW winds increasing again after 15Z. OUTLOOK...Saturday 25/18Z through Monday 27/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds SW winds 15-20 kts, gusting 20-30 kts on Saturday, then becoming W 5-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts on Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Dry conditions with cooler than normal temperatures. Near-critical fire weather conditions expected today and Saturday across the Little Colorado River Valley. Winds southwest 15-25 mph, with gusts 25-35 mph each afternoon. Minimum afternoon RH values 10-20%. Sunday through Tuesday...Warming temperatures and continued dry conditions. Winds primarily southwest 10-20 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH values 5-15%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Mazon AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff