Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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897 FXUS63 KFSD 250327 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1027 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Memorial Day Weekend will feature periodic shower and thunderstorm chances although there will be more dry periods than wet. Seasonal temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 60s and 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Rest of Today: Vertically stacked low peeling northeastward into Canada is grazing enough of our area with a tightened SPG to allow for gusts approaching or exceeding 45 mph with the more frequent gusts above this threshold near/west of the James River and perhaps along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN. These winds should be on the increase into the evening hours. Tonight: Better influence from surface high pressure to the south by overnight and thus winds should become light after dark. With mostly clear skies, overnight lows should fall into the 40s. Dewpoint depressions should remain spread enough to prevent fog issues but with recent rainfall, would completely discount some very patchy valley focused fog. Saturday thru Monday: Southerly return flow reestablishes for the daytime hours Saturday with some gusts out of the south in the 20-30 mph range. This will help push afternoon high temperatures near seasonal normals in the 70s. Next wave approaches quickly by Saturday night with synoptic forcing aided by the right entrance region of upper level jet streak to our north. Current vort lobe progs should drive the main MCS along the I- 80 corridor through Nebraska/Iowa with the northern edge of this potentially into NW IA and more hit or miss activity north of that. Instability remains fairly limited with lack of low level moisture return and thus severe weather looks unlikely although machine learning probabilities would suggest at least a very low end potential south of I-90. A slightly larger concern would be if any more impactful rain amounts were to sneak a bit further north, it would impact an already very saturated NW IA and could exacerbate ongoing flooding issues. At this time, QPF looks to remain less than an inch for most with HREF PMM/LPMM showing potential for localized pockets in the 1-2 inch range near the Hwy 20 corridor. This will need to be monitored over the next 36 hours. Another wave arrives for the second half of Sunday and looks to focus another chance of precipitation along and especially south of the MO River Valley, although a few more hit or miss showers may occur further north along the mid level theta-e gradient. No rest for the weary with another wave dropping out of the northwest for Monday. Doesn`t look like a significant precipitation event but still worthy of some light POPs. Perhaps some breezier NW winds with push of 850 mb CAA. Afternoon high temperatures within a few degrees of 70 degrees. Overall not a washout by any means for the holiday weekend but occasional rain chances and seasonable temperatures. Tuesday thru Thursday: Upper level northwest flow regime to start the period with mid/upper level ridging pushing east by Wednesday and Thursday. This will provide for warming temperatures back above normal. Our next chance of thunderstorms also looks to arrive very late in the period Thursday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Light southerly winds overnight, increasing late Saturday morning and gusting around 20kts through the afternoon and early evening. There will be a small probability (20-30%) of showers or sprinkles north of Interstate 90 on Saturday afternoon, then increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday night. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kalin AVIATION...JM