164
FXUS64 KFWD 191854
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
154 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
/Start Of The Week/

The previous short-term discussions below handle everything
through tonight well and see no significant changes (more like a
few tweaks) to the forecast.

Monday will be mostly a carbon-copy of today with an upper ridge
keeping any mid level systems deflected well to the north of the
area with subsidence keeping the area very breezy, warm, and
humid. Brief morning stratus will occur across parts of Central
Texas near the Waco/Killeen/Temple areas as more moisture-rich air
just below the LLJ remains. Even some patchy light/early morning
fog is possible whenever extended lulls in wind speeds occur. The
threat for strong to severe storms will also be displaced well to
our north from northern Oklahoma into Kansas and Missouri while
subsidence under the mid level ridge maintains rain-free weather
around here.

High temperatures both days will average from the mid 80s to
around 90 degrees, with a few readings in the mid 90s across the
higher terrain of our Big Country counties west of Hwy 281. A
tight pressure gradient will maintain breezy south winds and an
influx of humidity as low level moisture remains replenished from
parcels moving northward from the GoM. This will result in low
temperatures remaining elevated tomorrow morning with widespread
upper 60s and lower 70s. In addition, these conditions and green
up from recent wet conditions will minimize any fire weather
concerns.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
Update:
The forecast is in good shape and we will only make some minor
hourly cloud adjustments based on the stratus currently moving
through Central Texas. These clouds will lift and scatter as they
spread northward, leaving plenty of sun this afternoon to push
temps into the upper 80s and lower 90s.


79

Previous Discussion:
/Tonight through Sunday night/

The upper ridge currently over the Central and Southern Plains
will shift eastward over the next 24 hours while a broader trough
in the northern branch of the jet stream translates across the
western CONUS. This upper pattern will allow for a surface trough
to develop lee of the Central Rockies. The resultant pressure
gradient will bring an increase in southerly winds to the region
along with a constant fetch of Gulf moisture. The moisture surge
will keep overnight lows warm (upper 60s to lower 70s) and bring
early morning low clouds and patchy fog to parts of Central Texas.
The moisture return will be a bit deeper than it was Saturday
morning so it may take until mid to late morning before low
clouds/fog lift and dissipate. Ample afternoon sun and low level
warm advection will make for a hot, breezy, and humid afternoon
Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and afternoon heat
index values generally in the middle 90s. Warm and humid weather
will continue Sunday night with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s
once again. Wind speeds Sunday night will be strong enough to
limit fog production.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/
/Monday through Saturday/

The work week will start out hot, rain-free, and humid due to low
level warm advection and ridging aloft. Highs Monday and Tuesday
will range from the upper 80s in the east to the middle 90s in the
west. Lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

The upper ridge axis will shift to the east Tuesday in response
to a trough approaching from the west. Although large scale
forcing for ascent will gradually increase, it will likely not be
strong enough to eliminate a cap of warm air aloft. Therefore, no
measurable rainfall or thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday, but
a few storms developing along and just ahead of an approaching
cold front may manage to cross the Red River Tuesday night. Storm
chances will increase Wednesday when the front moves into North
Texas and a shortwave moves quickly through southwest flow aloft.
The front is progged to move a bit farther south Wednesday night,
but it may get a push farther south depending on the extent of
cool convective outflows that may develop during the day. Lift
along the front and passage of additional shortwaves will warrant
chance PoPs Wednesday night with slightly higher PoPs Thursday due
to the arrival of stronger shortwave energy and the return of the
front back to the north. It is difficult to say exactly where and
how much rain will fall, but the setup has the potential to
produce locally heavy rainfall which may result in some flooding.
Instability and wind shear are also progged to be sufficient for
some strong to severe storms, especially Thursday afternoon.
Rain/storm chances will temporarily end on Friday but the passage
of additional shortwaves embedded in southwest flow may spark a
few storms Friday night.

Temperatures the second half of the week will be slightly cooler
due to more clouds, showers/storms, and the brief appearance of
the cold front. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be generally in
the 80s to around 90. Lows Wednesday night will range from the
middle 60s near the Red River to the lower 70s across Central
Texas. A slight warmup is expected Friday and Saturday with highs
in the upper 80s and 90s and lows from the upper 60s to the lower
70s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Similar to this past morning, the only challenge and concern for
the midday aviation forecast will be timing and duration of IFR
(possibly LIFR) cigs from 11z-14z, along with the possibility of
an hour or two of MVFR vsbys whenever sustained wind speeds
briefly drop off. All these concerns will be confined to Waco
Regional Airport only, as a southerly LLJ around 1500 ft above the
surface veers and weakens after 12z Monday.

Otherwise, VFR conditions with little in the way of cloud cover
are expected across most of the D10. S winds will average 12-16
kts with periodic gusts upward to 25 kts. No precipitation or
weather impacts to the arrival or departure of commercial aircraft
are anticipated at DFW/DAL.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  92  74  91  75 /   0   0   0   5  10
Waco                69  90  73  89  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               69  89  71  88  75 /   0   0   0   5  20
Denton              72  90  72  90  72 /   0   0   0   5  20
McKinney            72  90  72  88  74 /   0   0   0   5  10
Dallas              72  91  75  91  76 /   0   0   0   5  10
Terrell             70  89  72  88  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           70  88  73  90  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              69  90  72  90  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       70  92  72  92  72 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$