224
FXUS64 KFWD 021111
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
611 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The overall trend described below are still on track this morning.
The MCS described below has left a substantial cold pool over OK
with the leading edge of it currently moving through Duncan, OK.
It should move a little further south and approach our Red River
counties this morning. We`ll have to monitor this boundary for
convective initiation later today, particularly when the northward
moisture surge interacts with it over Western North Texas.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

A meso-high built over North Texas in the wake of yesterday`s
thunderstorms. This has shunted the better moisture into Central
and Southeast Texas, with a relatively pleasant early morning
expected for most of North Texas. We`ll have to monitor a MCS as
it tracks across Oklahoma in the pre-dawn hours, since the
Corfidi vectors indicate it would clip our far northeastern
counties near sunrise if it were to sustain through the night.
Since the chance of this occurring is around 10%, we have not
included any mentionable weather in our forecast.

Southerly flow will re-establish and start to draw higher moisture
air north early this morning. The general consensus amongst the
guidance is that the boundary will reside near the I-20 corridor
by sunrise then lift into Oklahoma today. Low stratus, or perhaps
some patchy fog, will be possible near and north of this boundary
this morning.

Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
is expected this afternoon, focusing near three main sources of
ascent. The aforementioned surface boundary will be well to our
north, but it will draw a theta-e ridge over North and Central
Texas early this afternoon. Most parcels within this theta-e ridge
should be able to achieve their convective temperature, with
airmass thunderstorms developing early in the afternoon. Further
south, scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop near the
Texas Gulf Coast early in the day and move north into Central
Texas near/south of an outflow boundary. The third area to watch
for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will be across Western
North Texas ahead of a modest shortwave trough as it moves into
the area. Since all of these features are relatively weak, it`s
hard to pinpoint where each will be and how/if they will interact
with each other. Due to this, we have broad-brushed 20-30% PoPs
across the area, with higher values near where we suspect the
boundaries will reside. The parameter space this afternoon dues
support a very low severe threat, or a 5% chance of a storm
producing damaging winds or small to borderline severe hail.

Most of the afternoon storms will dissipate with the loss of
heating after sunset. Well to our West, another MCS will develop
near the Panhandles this evening. A subtle shift in steering flow
winds will allow for the MCS` trajectory to move into North Texas
late tonight and early Monday morning. We also expect it to
maintain its intensity for much of the night due to a stout 30-40
kt low- level jet feeding the system. This system will have a
damaging wind threat as it moves into North Texas.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 304 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/
/Monday through Next Weekend/

After a very wet and stormy May, it looks like the summer weather
will make the headlines this week. As storm chances decrease mid-
to-late week, the heat will take the lead with widespread highs
in the 90s. With plenty of humidity in place, we will also see
heat indices in the 99-105 range Tuesday through Thursday.

Monday`s daytime storm chances will highly depend on what happens
with the MCS coming south from Oklahoma late Sunday night. As
we`ve seen with the recent storm systems, not only they have
steadily tracked into North Texas during the morning, but also
have left surface boundaries that have triggered convection in
the afternoon. While it is difficult to pinpoint where these
storms will track/develop, at this time it appears everyone but
the far western zones will have at least a low chance for storms
Monday afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather will
exist with any of these storms with damaging winds and hail as
the main threats. Some storms may also produce brief heavy rain
and isolated instances of flooding. Storm chances should decrease
Monday night, but we will continue to monitor the potential for
another complex traveling south into our area Tuesday morning.
Make sure to keep checking back the forecast for updates!

An upper ridge centered over Mexico and southern Texas is
expected to shift northward during the mid week period (Tuesday-
Thursday), spreading some its subsidence across the region. While
a mainly dry period will prevail for most of us, a few locations
may see some diurnally driven showers/storms Tuesday and
Wednesday. Confidence remains low to mention it in the forecast at
this time. Beyond that, latest guidance continue to highlight a
weak surface front moving southward late Thursday which may bring
low rain chances along the Red River into Friday. Northwest flow
aloft may also return next weekend and with that the potential
for additional rounds of isolated to scattered storms.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

IFR ceilings have engulfed the region this morning. Patches of
LIFR will be possible for areas north of ACT through about 15Z,
but our confidence of this occurring at the D10 terminals was too
low to include in the 12Z TAFs. The ceilings will lift/scatter
late this morning with the aid of warm/moist surface advection as
well as diurnal heating.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected again this
afternoon. We`re confident of storms developing, but it`s hard to
pinpoint when/where the storms will develop. We have maintained
VCTS in all TAFs this afternoon. Most storms should dissipate this
evening.

A cluster of storms will develop to our west late in the day,
merge into a line of storms, then move east overnight. Our high-
res guidance has been somewhat consistent with bringing this into
the D10 terminals sometime after 06Z, then moving east after a
couple hours of TS. There are signals that wind gusts of 35-50
kts are possible. There is far too much uncertainty to add
anything more than VCTS into the TAFs at this time...but airport
managers should be aware of the potential for severe wind gusts
late tonight/early tomorrow morning or substantial delays during
the Monday morning push.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  72  87  74  92 /  30  40  40  20   5
Waco                89  74  88  74  93 /  40  20  20  20   5
Paris               87  71  86  71  87 /  20  30  50  20  10
Denton              88  70  87  73  91 /  30  50  40  20   0
McKinney            87  71  85  73  89 /  30  40  50  20   5
Dallas              90  72  88  74  92 /  30  40  40  20   5
Terrell             87  71  86  73  91 /  30  30  40  20   5
Corsicana           89  74  88  75  91 /  40  20  30  20   5
Temple              89  73  89  74  92 /  30  20  20  20   5
Mineral Wells       87  71  89  72  93 /  30  40  30  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$