Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
561 FXUS65 KGGW 310847 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 247 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) A general warming trend is expected this weekend into next week with a strong upper ridge pattern evolving over the western US. 2) Drier conditions overall will coincide with this, aside from isolated convection from afternoon instability and a notable system Monday night into Tuesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: While to a lesser extent than yesterday, gusty west winds return as lingering influence from a shortwave trough provides enough daytime instability for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms for far NE Montana. Forecast wind conditions are marginal and generally just short of Lake Wind Advisory and SPS criteria. Look for a warming trend this weekend into next week with a progressive pattern initially and various shortwave ridges/troughs tracking through the region. The expectation will be for a gradual uptick in temperatures along with occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. The most notable shortwave and chance for more widespread thunderstorms arrives Monday night. Longer term ensembles differ in the extent of ridging later next week which would lead to more of the same or a hot/dry pattern developing. CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is medium and increasing for an eventual broad ridge and warmer/drier pattern setting up late next week, but an active progressive pattern over the next few days will lend to uncertainty in the precise timing. Aside from Monday night into Tuesday, there is low confidence on the timing or materialization of measurable rain. No deviations were made from the NBM at this time. -Zanker && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0830Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR DISCUSSION: Enough instability for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will exist mainly northeast of a line from KOLF to KSDY. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with scattered mid level clouds. SFC WIND: West 10 to 20 kts with gusts around 25 kts becoming light/variable this evening. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow