Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
331 FXUS65 KGGW 170804 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 204 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - There will be repeated chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next several days. - Gusty west winds up to 40 mph are expected Friday, Lake Wind Advisory issued from 8AM Fri to 9PM Sat. - Slightly cooler temperatures are expected over the weekend, more noticeable drop in temperature on Monday and Tuesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Trough will dig south out of Canada and bring a cold front with it. This will bring higher winds to the region, enough for a Lake Wind Advisory from Friday morning into Saturday but looks like it`ll remain below high wind criteria. The trough will bring more moisture in the mid levels which will lead to more widespread clouds and scattered showers, the lower levels of the atmosphere will be drier which will lead to lower QPF`s as well as a chance for gusty winds with the showers as evaporating rain through the dry layer will lead to stronger downdrafts. The better chances for afternoon storms will be towards the southeast as the front takes a bit longer to advect drier air into those zones. Showers will end by midday Saturday as a weak and fast moving ridge moves through the area. This break will not last long as another trough brings another shot of showers into the area Sunday into Monday. Cooler air behind this trough will drop temperatures into the 50s and 60s Monday into Tuesday. Unsettled weather continues for the rest of next week as troughing allows more disturbances to rotate through and bring continued shower or thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will hover at or just below seasonal averages. CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: High confidence exists on the gusty west to northwest winds Friday and Saturday. There is lower confidence for QPF amounts and thunderstorm activity as front will dry out lower levels of the atmosphere and reduce CAPE values in the Friday through Saturday morning event. -Bernhart && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0830Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR. DISCUSSION: Mid level clouds and high based showers or thunderstorms will move through the region today into Saturday afternoon. WINDS: W-NW 15-25kts, gusts to 40kts -Bernhart && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Saturday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow