787
FXUS65 KGGW 280948
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
348 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm and dry conditions expected today.

- Strong and severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon and
  evening with an SPC slight risk area near the North Dakota
  border.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Fairly fast moving ridge moves across the region today, pushed by
an upper low along the BC coast. As the low continues eastward, an
Alberta surface low develops with a cold front south along the
front range by this afternoon. Overnight and into Wednesday as the
front moves east, low level jet strengthens, pulling moisture
northward along the North Dakota border. This will set up a
scenario for severe weather, mainly across the far eastern zones
for Wednesday afternoon and evening, as noted by SPC with a slight
risk area.

As the upper trof across the Canadian prairies, cooler
temperatures along with some unstable air lingers over the region
for Thursday. Behind the trof, upper flow becomes generally zonal,
with occasional shortwaves, for warmer and drier conditions
through the weekend.

CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence for severe weather on Wednesday afternoon continues to
increase, with CAPE in excess of 1000 j/kg, and moisture
advection on the strong low level southeast jet with winds in
excess of 30kt. HREF ensemble only giving a 10% probability for updraft
helicity in excess of 75 m2/s2 through 0z Thursday, but could see
higher probability in the early evening. With PW over 1"
indicated, heavy rain is also a possibility near the North Dakota
border.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Mostly clear skies are expected today, with clouds slowing
increasing from the west into Wednesday morning.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow