381
FXUS65 KGGW 300854
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
254 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Cool and wet conditions will continue for NE Montana today with
gusty west to northwest winds. An isolated near high wind gust
around 60 mph cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening.

2) A warming trend is expected this weekend into next week with a
strong upper ridge pattern expected by the second half of this
week into next weekend.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper level low will remain over the region today with cool and
wet conditions favored. The NBM 12 hour probability of 0.01" QPF
or greater is at least 50 percent along and north of Highway 2,
with probabilities trailing off further to the south. For southern
locations, measurable rain would still be expected with isolated
thunderstorms but better odds will exist to the north. The trough
will help provide some instability with enough CAPE/Shear to
support some short lived thunderstorms, but much of what is
expected to occur is convective rain showers.

The latest HREF suggests a few of these showers may help mix down
some strong wind gusts, and an isolated near 60 mph reading
cannot be ruled out. The activity may be too isolated and short
lived to justify a High Wind Warning, and the presence of
lightning could lend to a more convective influence. For now, will
let the Lake Wind Advisory ride for Fort Peck Lake until 9 PM
this evening to cover expected gusty synoptic winds, but
convective enhancement appears likely.

Look for a warming trend this weekend into next week with a
progressive pattern initially with various shortwave ridges and
troughs tracking through the region. The expectation will be for
an uptick in temperatures along with occasional chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Longer term ensembles point towards a
large upper ridge developing over the western CONUS late next week
into next weekend which would lend toward hot and dry weather
unfolding.
CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is high on cool and wet conditions continuing today for
NE Montana. Lower confidence exists on isolated high wind gusts
and coverage of associated thunderstorms.

Confidence is increasing toward an eventual ridge and warmer and
drier pattern setting up late next week, but an active
progressive pattern over the next few days will lend to
uncertainty in the precise timing of that upper ridge late in the
week. Still expect warmer temperatures as current upper low pulls
away, but occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms may
return in the days ahead.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are likely today, though MVFR ceilings and
reductions in visibility are possible with steadier showers and
isolated thunderstorms that develop, especially afternoon and
evening hours.

West winds are expected between 15 and 25 kts, gusting to 35 kts.
Gusty, shifting winds are likely near showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow