Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
655 FXUS65 KGGW 201120 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 520 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled pattern continues with daily rain and thunderstorm chances especially in afternoon and evenings for the upcoming week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper trof will be over the western states through the end of the week. As shortwave push through the base of the trof, occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected. The best probability for rain will be Wednesday through Friday as a lower pressure pushes through the northern Rockies and into the northern plains. CONFIDENCE LEVEL and POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: A brief dry period is in store during the morning hours before more shower opportunities return in the afternoon. There is high (80 percent) confidence of rainfall remaining below a tenth of an inch of accumulation today. There is low (30 percent) confidence in thunderstorm strength on Wednesday and beyond based on low surface-based CAPE values in the GFS ensemble. Total rainfall amounts from Wednesday through Friday night have been fluctuating quite a bit the past two days, so there is low (30 percent) confidence on QPF amounts. && .AVIATION... VFR. A stationary front will settle over northern Montana today. This will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening hours. Flight conditions could drop to MVFR with any of the storms. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow