777
FXUS63 KGID 250547
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1247 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southerly winds will return tomorrow and gust to 25 to 30 mph
  during the afternoon hours, especially along and west of Hwy
  281.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening
  and early overnight hours. Hail and Wind are the primary
  hazards, but a low tornado threat is possible.

- Weak, non-severe showers and thunderstorms are possible during
  the day Sunday.

- Memorial Day looks quiet and mild. Highs in the 70s, mostly
  clear skies and a dry forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Tonight - Saturday night
Breezy northwesterly winds are present today behind last nights
cold front and associated severe weather. It has been sunny and
dry throughout the day and it is expected to remain dry this
evening and overnight. Overnight, surface high pressure will
move overhead and winds will become southerly. A deepening lee
low will cause the pressure gradient to increase and breezy
southerly winds are expected Saturday. Southerly wind gusts up
to 25 to 30 mph are expected. As moisture streams back to the
north with the southerly winds, cloud cover will increase from
the sunrise through the early afternoon. There could be some
clearing during the afternoon hours. There is some variability
among the guidance at how dense the cloud cover will be and how
long it will stick around which could impact the potential for
severe weather later in the day.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
cold front/dryline across Nebraska/Kansas in the afternoon
hours as the upper disturbance approaches from the west.  A
limiting factor for activity in Nebraska is that the best
moisture will reside along and south of the NE/KS state line.
Activity that does develop along and ahead of the front/dryline
would likely be more isolated as it develops before evolving
into a linear system as the cold pool strengthens. All hazards
are possible, but the primary concern will be hail and wind.
Areas to the south and east of our area will have the best
chance for more widespread severe hazards as a the linear system
develops, moves into the evening and overnight hours and
interacts with an increasing low level jet. The Day 2 update
kept the Slight Risk and Marginal Risk largely the same, but
increased the Enhanced Risk area pushing it a bit further into
our forecast area in north central Kansas, but has kept the
addition of a Moderate Risk to the southeast of our area.

Timing for south central Nebraska and north central Kansas looks
as if it will be to be near to after 6-7 PM Saturday evening for
entering our area.

Sunday:
A number of pieces of energy will move across the area on Sunday
and that will bring cloudy skies, breezy northwesterly winds and
scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms to the area.
Highs will be in the low 70s and with the breezy northwesterly
winds it will feel cool.

Monday (Memorial Day):
Memorial Day will be a nice reprieve after number of days with
rain and thunderstorms. Dry weather with mostly sunny skies and
temps topping out in the upper 70s is expected. Enjoy!

Tuesday through Friday:
The pattern shifts to a northwesterly flow aloft with chances
for scattered thunderstorms. By the end of the work week, a
trough digs into the intermountain west and southwesterly flow
aloft returns continuing the sporadic off and on rain chances.
Highs in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR forecast through the period.

Clear skies currently will give way to incr high clds through
the morning. SCT to BKN high clouds expected much of the day.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become possible around
and esp. after sunset as a cold front moves in from the NW. Have
introduced VCSH around 03Z-04Z for now as coverage and exact
timing is still uncertain. Lgt Srly flow now will give way to
breezy conditions after sunrise. Sustained winds will incr to
15-20kt, with gusts up to around 30kt. Winds will back to the SE
and E Sat eve ahead of the cold front. Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Thies