859
FXUS63 KGID 011702
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1202 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog, dense at times is expected through mid-morning Saturday
  for much of the area.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday.
  The main hazards with any storms that develop will be large
  hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain.

- There is a chance for daily showers and thunderstorms,
  impacting at least a portion of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The main concern in the near term as people are waking up this
morning is the potential for dense fog across south central Nebraska
and north central Kansas.  Light winds, radiational cooling, and
recent moisture have created favorable conditions for the
development of fog across the area.  Visibilities as low as 1/4 mile
have been reported already this morning in Grand Island and Kearney
Nebraska, and Smith Center, Kansas.  Fog, dense at times, will
remain possible through around mid-morning.

Once the fog burns off, our attention turns to the chance for more
showers and thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms are ongoing coming out of
the Nebraska Panhandle this morning, moving to the east.  There are
a few, low-end pops (10-20%) in the forecast for areas along and
north of Highway 2.  Confidence in these storms holding together and
becoming severe is low at this time.  There does still remain the
possibility of a few storms making it into the northern part of the
region.

Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
heading into the afternoon and evening hours.  Decent lapse rates
along with SBCAPE values of around 1500+ J/kg, MLCAPE values of
1000+ J/kg, and DCAPE values of 900-1100 J/kg are expected. The
main concerns with any storms that develop will be large hail,
gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado cannot be
entirely ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has put most of
the area into either a Marginal or Slight Risk for severe
weather for this afternoon/evening. Several flood products
remain in effect through this morning for portions of south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Precipitable water
values of 0.8-1.1 inches is expected today. There is a concern
that any slower moving or training thunderstorms may cause more
flooding issues in areas that have already had flooding in the
last 48 to 72 hours. The Weather Prediction Center has most of
the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today.

Sunday, a trough will enter the region, bringing another chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the region in the afternoon, evening,
and overnight hours. Once again, some of these storms could
become strong to severe with hail to the size of quarters, winds
gusting to 70 mph, and heavy rainfall, which may result in
flash flooding for areas that have already received quite a bit
of rainfall over the last few days. The Storm Prediction Center
has the area in a Marginal to Slight Risk area for severe
weather. The Weather Prediction Center has the area in a
Marginal to Slight Risk area for excessive rainfall.

Monday and Tuesday, zonal flow will be in place for much of the day.
 An upper trough over the PACNW will slip to the southeast
through the day Monday, bringing chances for showers and storms
both Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday appears to be the better day
for precipitation chances, with a 20-50 percent chance. Areas
that have already had significant amounts of rainfall will want
to keep an eye on the weather as it will not take as much rain
to cause issues. Afternoon temperatures each day will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday bring a welcome, drying out period as a ridge
sets up over the Rockies.  The High Plains will be under northwest
flow during this time.

Uncertainty returns to the forecast late in the week as models are
not able to find agreement on the potential for thunderstorms.
There is a concern that any slower moving or training
thunderstorms may cause more flooding issues in areas that have
already had flooding in the last 48 to 72 hours. The Weather
Prediction Center has most of the area in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall today.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The winds will become more southeasterly today as high presure
over NE will move to the SE today. Tonight the models try to
bring in a cluster of storms, but disagree on location and
timing so decided to VCTS tonight for the best window of seeing
something. As the current cluster of showers makes its way
across expect lower ceilings to scatter out and VFR is expected
this afternoon and evening. Tomorrow morning it is looking like
MVFR ceilings will move into the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Beda/Wekesser