143
FXUS63 KGID 011000
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
500 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog, dense at times is expected through mid-morning Saturday
  for much of the area.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday.
  The main hazards with any storms that develop will be large
  hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain.

- There is a chance for daily showers and thunderstorms,
  impacting at least a portion of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The main concern in the near term as people are waking up this
morning is the potential for dense fog across south central Nebraska
and north central Kansas.  Light winds, radiational cooling, and
recent moisture have created favorable conditions for the
development of fog across the area.  Visibilities as low as 1/4 mile
have been reported already this morning in Grand Island and Kearney
Nebraska, and Smith Center, Kansas.  Fog, dense at times, will
remain possible through around mid-morning.

Once the fog burns off, our attention turns to the chance for more
showers and thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms are ongoing coming out of
the Nebraska Panhandle this morning, moving to the east.  There are
a few, low-end pops (10-20%) in the forecast for areas along and
north of Highway 2.  Confidence in these storms holding together and
becoming severe is low at this time.  There does still remain the
possibility of a few storms making it into the northern part of the
region.

Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
heading into the afternoon and evening hours.  Decent lapse rates
along with SBCAPE values of around 1500+ J/kg, MLCAPE values of
1000+ J/kg, and DCAPE values of 900-1100 J/kg are expected. The
main concerns with any storms that develop will be large hail,
gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado cannot be
entirely ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has put most of
the area into either a Marginal or Slight Risk for severe
weather for this afternoon/evening. Several flood products
remain in effect through this morning for portions of south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. The main concern in
the near term as people are waking up this morning is the
potential for dense fog across south central Nebraska and north
central Kansas. Light winds, radiational cooling, and recent
moisture have created favorable conditions for the development
of fog across the area. Visibilities as low as 1/4 mile have
been reported already this morning in Grand Island and Kearney
Nebraska, and Smith Center, Kansas. Fog, dense at times, will
remain possible through around mid-morning.

Once the fog burns off, our attention turns to the chance for more
showers and thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms are ongoing coming out of
the Nebraska Panhandle this morning, moving to the east.  There are
a few, low-end pops (10-20%) in the forecast for areas along and
north of Highway 2.  Confidence in these storms holding together and
becoming severe is low at this time.  There does still remain the
possibility of a few storms making it into the northern part of the
region.

Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
heading into the afternoon and evening hours.  Decent lapse rates
along with SBCAPE values of around 1500+ J/kg, MLCAPE values of
1000+ J/kg, and DCAPE values of 900-1100 J/kg are expected. The
main concerns with any storms that develop will be large hail,
gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado cannot be
entirely ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has put most of
the area into either a Marginal or Slight Risk for severe
weather for this afternoon/evening. Several flood products
remain in effect through this morning for portions of south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Precipitable water
values of 0.8-1.1 inches is expected today. There is a concern
that any slower moving or training thunderstorms may cause more
flooding issues in areas that have already had flooding in the
last 48 to 72 hours. The Weather Prediction Center has most of
the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today.

Sunday, a trough will enter the region, bringing another chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the region in the afternoon, evening,
and overnight hours. Once again, some of these storms could
become strong to severe with hail to the size of quarters, winds
gusting to 70 mph, and heavy rainfall, which may result in
flash flooding for areas that have already received quite a bit
of rainfall over the last few days. The Storm Prediction Center
has the area in a Marginal to Slight Risk area for severe
weather. The Weather Prediction Center has the area in a
Marginal to Slight Risk area for excessive rainfall.

Monday and Tuesday, zonal flow will be in place for much of the day.
 An upper trough over the PACNW will slip to the southeast
through hte day Monday, bringing chances for showers and storms
both Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday appears to be the better day
for precipitation chances, with a 20-50 percent chance. Areas
that have already had significant amounts of rainfall will want
to keep an eye on the weather as it will not take as much rain
to cause issues. Afternoon temperatures each day will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday bring a welcome, drying out period as a ridge
sets up over the Rockies.  The High Plains will be under northwest
flow during this time.

Uncertainty returns to the forecast late in the week as models are
not able to find agreement on the potential for thunderstorms.
There is a concern that any slower moving or training
thunderstorms may cause more flooding issues in areas that have
already had flooding in the last 48 to 72 hours. The Weather
Prediction Center has most of the area in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall today.

Sunday, a trough will enter the region, bringing another chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the region in the afternoon, evening,
and overnight hours. Once again, some of these storms could
become strong to severe with hail to the size of quarters, winds
gusting to 70 mph, and heavy rainfall, which may result in
flash flooding for areas that have already received quite a bit
of rainfall over the last few days. The Storm Prediction Center
has the area in a Marginal to Slight Risk area for severe
weather. The Weather Prediction Center has the area in a
Marginal to Slight Risk area for excessive rainfall.

Monday and Tuesday, zonal flow will be in place for much of the day.
 An upper trough over the PACNW will slip to the southeast
through hte day Monday, bringing chances for showers and storms
both Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday appears to be the better day
for precipitation chances, with a 20-50 percent chance. Areas
that have already had significant amounts of rainfall will want
to keep an eye on the weather as it will not take as much rain
to cause issues. Afternoon temperatures each day will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday bring a welcome, drying out period as a ridge
sets up over the Rockies.  The High Plains will be under northwest
flow during this time.

Uncertainty returns to the forecast late in the week as models are
not able to find agreement on the potential for thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

At KGRI: Dense fog has developed within the vicinity of the
terminal, with significant reductions to visibility. Light
winds, clear skies in surrounding areas, and recent moisture
will all add to the potential for fog issues lingering into the
morning hours. Heading into sunrise, fog concerns persist in
the vicinity of the terminal. Visibilities are expected to
improve as we move further into the morning and afternoon. Winds
remain light and variable through the afternoon, before
becoming southeasterly in the evening. Additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms continue from mid-afternoon Sunday
through the end of the TAF period.

At KEAR: VFR conditions continue. Skies are currently clear and
winds are light. There is growing concern that fog will develop
by 09Z. Fog has already developed to the east, and is expected
to expand in coverage overnight. For now, have fog potentially
lowering visibilities down to 1/2 mile; however, there may be a
few pockets of 1/4 mile visibility. Any fog that develops is
expected to clear up by around mid-morning. Light and variable
winds in the morning will gradually become southeasterly around
5-10kts in the afternoon. There is a chance for a few showers
and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminal beginning
around mid-afternoon and continuing through the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ061>063-
     073>076-082>086.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser