Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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384 FXUS65 KGJT 050518 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1118 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clouds diminish this afternoon and evening giving way to clear skies overnight. Temperatures start to warmup tomorrow as high pressure builds in. - Some of the hottest temperatures are expected late week with highs running 10-15 degrees above normal and triple digits likely for the lower desert valleys. - Chances of mountain showers and storms will return for the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Some clouds linger over the higher terrain this afternoon but with high pressure slowly moving in, clearing skies remain the rule heading into the evening hours and overnight. Some breezy conditions are mixing down with gusts of 20 to 30 mph being common but these too shall end heading into the evening hours. Tomorrow, high pressure continues to build in and will cause high temperatures to start increasing. Highs will jump by about 5 degrees and this trend of increasing temps will continue into the long term period. Look for the usual afternoon breezes of 15 to occasionally 20 mph at times. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 High pressure remains in control Thursday as a closed low continues to spin off the Mexican coast at the start of the long term period. This high pressure will be the cause for the hot temperatures towards the end of the week heading into the weekend. Triple digit high temps remain in the forecast from the Grand Valley to Moab and much of southeastern Utah. Probabilities of this occurring remain near 100% for southeast Utah with 80% chances for the Grand Valley. It`s gonna be hot since seasonal values are usually in the mid to upper 80s. Outside of the heat, some convection does look to return to the area heading into the weekend as some moisture increases are noted. Starting Friday, PWATs are forecast to increase some and despite a ridge axis staying over much of the western states, weak disturbances and daytime heating will allow some showers and storms to form in the afternoon and evening. Favored areas will be the higher terrain and with such dry lower levels, the main concern will be some gusty outflow winds. This trend of afternoon and evening convection continues into the weekend. The closed low off the Mexico Coast starts moving to the northeast Saturday while a deep trough approaches the West Coast. This will cause the ridge axis to shift to our east. Even so, another round of convection is expected Saturday afternoon and yet another round on Sunday. This Sunday convection could be more widespread and intense (maybe) as the trough and a surface front will be providing additional dynamic support. Monday may also be a bit more active as the upper level trough pushes through and provides the support. If you plan on hiking in the higher terrain this weekend, set out early to avoid any convection. Hot temperatures continue Saturday before dropping about 5 degrees Sunday and again Monday thanks to increased cloud cover and the winds becoming more northwesterly allowing somewhat cooler temps to move in. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1116 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Clear skies and light northerly winds will continue through the night, with typical terrain driven patterns really kicking in around 10z. Gusty westerly winds will start up after 18z tomorrow afternoon, with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Skies will remain clear and VFR conditions will prevail through the period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 High pressure building overhead through the end of the week will result in an unseasonably warm period across the Western Slope. Simultaneously, as those temperatures rise, so will the rate of snowmelt across our high terrain. Even though low to mid elevations have already melted out, there`s still an abnormally high amount of snow left over basins generally at and above 11,000 ft. As a result, we`ll see creeks, streams and major tributaries along the Upper Colorado River Basin rise. Seasonal peak flows are expected over the next 10 days, with the Upper Gunnison, Upper Yampa and Colorado Headwaters basins potentially peaking this weekend. Current guidance oscillates diurnal peaks cresting the Action Stage for portions of Gore Creek and Eagle River in Eagle County and the Elk River in Routt County Colorado. We will continue to monitor these evolving forecasts to see if any Flood products are warranted. But for now, we just want to pass on the message: As scorching temperatures lure folks to the water, please remember the potential hazards associated with high flows during the snowmelt season. Fast flows are not just dangerous for those choosing to float the rivers. In addition, high diurnal swings may drastically change the depth and flow for normally small creeks and streams. Swift currents and cold water temperatures can catch you off guard, so please be vigilant with current conditions and look for forecast updates when recreating or working near the water`s edge. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT HYDROLOGY...ERW