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FXUS65 KGJT 261720
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1120 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers are possible in the mountains this morning with
  little to accumulation on the roadways.

- Temperatures warm to five to ten degrees above normal by mid
  week. Precipitation chances remain low through most of the
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

The trough has just crossed the Divide so the existing showers are
expected to dissipate over the next several hours. By sunrise most
locations will be dry although a few mountain ranges could see light
snow linger until late morning. The left over moisture should result
in mainly just clouds in the higher terrain this afternoon. Although
isolated showers are possible in the mountains during peak heating.
Warm advection kicks in behind the departing system so highs warm be
a few degrees compared to yesterday especially north of I-70 where
clouds were around most of the day. The moisture present now does
not get pushed that far before southwest flow ushers it back. So
tomorrow light orographic showers are possible over the higher
terrain. A ridge begins to build over the region which marks the
beginning of the warm up expected. Highs tomorrow will be 5-10
degrees warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Not much change in current thinking with regards to the long
term period. Ridging continues to build in on Memorial Day as
the warmup continues. High temps will reach at or just above
seasonal values with plenty of sunshine expected. Some Cu
buildup will occur over the higher terrain but that looks to be
it. The ridge axis shifts just to our east on Tuesday causing
wind flow to become more southwesterly. This flow will keep warm
air advection in place allowing highs to continue inching
upwards. Weak orographics along the Divide, and daytime heating,
may allow a few convective showers/storms to fire but with PoPs
of only 10 to 30% chance, don`t get your hopes up. Wednesday
into Thursday, a large area of low pressure will move along the
US/Canadian border. A trough will move out ahead of the low and
while models continue to highlight some precip from eastern CO
up into WY/MT and back into Idaho, they have continually kept
our CWA just about completely dry. The NBM is keeping some very
isolated PoPs along the Divide but for all intents and
purposes, we`ll remain dry. We`ll see an increase in cloud cover
but even then, partly cloudy skies look to remain in place. As
the low to our north keeps moving eastward, a cold front will
drop down and possibly reach as far back as our northern
valleys. Both the EC and GFS are highlighting this possibility
while the NBM isn`t so gung ho. Suffice to say, might see some
isolated to scattered showers/storms Thursday evening and again
Friday afternoon. After that, ridging builds in for the weekend.
All things considered, a relatively calm long term period with
noticeably warm temperatures especially from Tuesday through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Expect mostly VFR conditions across the region today with breezy
to gusty west winds through the afternoon. The exception is residual
moisture generating periods with cloud decks just below ILS
breakpoints for KASE and KEGE this afternoon. Look for skies to
clear out overnight across the region with light terrain driven
winds through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...DB