184
FXUS63 KGLD 031929
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
129 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional potential for isolated severe thunderstorms in
  vicinity of the Interstate 70 corridor in northwest Kansas
  Tuesday morning (~4-10 am MDT / ~5-11 am CDT). The storms will
  also produce heavy rain which may lead to localized flooding.

- A less active weather pattern is anticipated through the
  remainder of the work week (late Tuesday through Friday),
  with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Low pressure across central Kansas is holding thick cirrus strong
across eastern portions of the CWA. The RAP seems to have the best
handle on the cirrus with 50-70% RH at 300 mb so opted to go with
that for sky cover. Drier air aloft looks to move in from the west
ahead of an incoming shortwave which should help dissipate the
stratus by 22Z. Also did increase high temperatures a few
degrees for the day as am expecting more mixing with sporadic
wind gusts around 20 mph to help warm us up even more; so
brought western portions of the area into the low 90s where dew
points are lower and cloud free.

Tonight, winds will become southerly and we will see strong moisture
advection return to the area. Winds will be sustained around 20-25
mph through the early morning hours as this is going on. A surface
trough, then nudges into the area from the north bringing a
period of nearly calm winds along its leading edge followed by a
switch to NW winds. Have went ahead and added in patchy fog
along and south of a Hill City to Tribune line where the
moisture advection looks to be the strongest and with the
lightest winds. RAP was suggesting near 100% RH within in this
area as well in the 850-700mb levels.

As for precipitation there is a 20-30% chance starting this
evening as a shortwave moves off of the Front Range bringing
some showers and storms to the NW portion of the area. Severe
weather is not expected with this activity. Throughout the
remainder of the night, as the above mentioned trough nudges
into the area this will be the source for additional scattered
showers and storms to develop. Currently it appears that the
most favored area for this development would be east of Kansas
Highway 27. These showers and storms look to be efficient rain
producers with PWATS int he 1.1-1.3 range and slower Corfidi
vectors would support slow moving cells, which may lead to some
localized flooding concerns especially for those that saw the
most rain last night. There is also a low (less than 5%) chance
for severe hail to occur with these cells as well with MLCAPE
around 1500 j/kg and MUCAPE around 3000 j/kg; the main question
will be how organized will they be as 0-6 shear is around 15-20
knots. The favored time for severe weather looks to be between
10-16Z (4am- 10am MT).

Tuesday and Wednesday will see a return to drier conditions as
ridging develops. Moisture will still be in place (although not
to the extent of late) so those with sensitivity to heat may
need to be aware. The warmest day currently looks to be
Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Winds tomorrow will
be out of the NW and breezy around 20 knots behind the trough
before becoming more westerly Wednesday as downsloping aids in
our warmup. Wednesday winds look to also feature deep mixing
with sporadic gusts of 25-30 knots as sustained winds will be
in the 10-15 knot range.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Thursday...similar to 24 hours ago, daytime hours look to be
precipitation free with a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms
to develop during the night south of Interstate 70 as 850-500mb
moisture increases from the southeast while a weather disturbance
move east off the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge and into our
area. High temperatures in the 80s with low temperatures in the 50s.

Friday...similar to Thursday and more generally speaking the past
week, we`ll be waiting for a weather system to move off the Colorado
front range and across our area, mainly in the very late afternoon
through midnight/overnight hours. Presently, we have 40% chances for
showers/thunderstorms during the night. High temperatures remain
above normal with middle 80s to lower 90s forecast. Low temperatures
fall into the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday-Sunday...we`ll continue to have 20% to 50% chances for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and overnight
hours and mainly west of Highway 25 due to continued weather systems
moving through from the west. High temperatures cool a bit into the
80s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Monday...500mb flow is a bit more from the northwest. There is
pretty good agreement between the GFS/ECMWF that a weather
disturbance moves through during the afternoon and overnight
hours, supporting 20%-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures are forecast to be near normal in the 80 to
85 degree range with low temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree
range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1034 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions are currently forecasted for each terminal. Winds
will slowly shift from the west to more southerly throughout the
day. After sunset breezy sustained winds look to occur as the
LLJ increases across the area. A surface trough then moves
across the area overnight bringing some low and mid level
moisture to the area; there is potential for some storms to
develop around sunrise around or east of the KGLD terminal.
Confidence is not high enough at this time in storm development
and location to introduce into the TAF. In wake of the surface
trough winds will become northwesterly around 15-20 knots
sustained.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Trigg