Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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587 FXUS63 KGLD 020922 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 322 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Possible significant severe weather in the area this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, very strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are the main threats. There is a chance that severe weather will not form in the area or be very limited depending on how much dry air moves into the area. Best chance is along and north of Highway 36. - A less active weather pattern develops Monday through Friday with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Today is forecast to be fairly warm and active. Current satellite observations show a trough positioned near Southern California and Southern Nevada. This trough is forecast to move further north and east into the Four Corners region by the evening. As the upper trough advances, the broad surface low over Eastern Colorado is forecast to deepen and shift further east into the area. For the daytime hours, the shifting of the low and forecasted south to southwesterly flow will allow some drier air to begin working into the area. This will help keep skies sunny to partly cloudy through the mid-afternoon hours and help allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 90`s (with 850mb temps forecast to be around 30C). This would allow for critical fire weather conditions in parts of Eastern Colorado as surface dewpoints are forecast to drop into the 30`s or less, but overall fire weather concerns remain low with the recent rainfall. For the mid-afternoon and evening hours, there is the possibility of significant severe weather for the area. The threat for today though will hinge on how far the low center and drier air nudges into the area. For locales that are behind the dryline, instability is forecast to be relatively low (<2000 J/KG) and the flow nearly unidirectional with similar speeds which would keep shear generally below 30 kts. In short, storm development in this region would be unlikely with short lived storms if they did form. Still could see a severe wind gust though with the dry air through much of the column. There`s also the possibility that as the trough moves closer later, a cluster of storms could form and move through much of the drier area. For areas ahead of the dryline, it will get a bit more interesting with all the moisture present near the surface. Loaded gun soundings are being forecast, especially near the dryline with soundings suggesting anywhere from 4000-6000 J/KG of MUCAPE present in the region of higher surface moisture. With the presence of a cap, will need either temperatures to warm generally towards the mid 90`s to reach convective temperature, or have storms form along the surface convergence from the low and dryline. If storms can initiate, the environment will then be supportive of all hazards with significant hail (effective shear near 40 kts) and wind gusts (DCAPE above 1500 J/KG & 60+kts flow in cloud layer) possible. Max hazards for the event based on analogs and guidance are suggested to be 3.5 inches for hail and 85 mph wind gusts. A couple of tornadoes would also be possible with LCL`s forecast to lower to within a few thousand feet while low level shear exceeds 10kts and SRH exceeds 100-200 m2/s2. The overall flooding threat looks to be low with storm motions generally forecast in the 30 to 40 kt range and limited chances for training. In short, today boils down to how far east the dryline and surface low move. The further into our area these features move by this afternoon, the lesser the severe threat. Any area that does have storms develop with dewpoints generally above 55F, the severe threat will be great with significant hazards possible. The favored area will be along and north of Highway 36 where surface convergence is forecast to occur along the low and where moisture would wrap around. The entire area is at risk as temperatures may be able to reach convective temperature and overcome any capping. Tonight, skies will slowly clear as storms exit to the east. Winds are also forecast to lower generally back below 15 mph as the pressure gradient weakens and the surface low moves overhead. Lows are forecast to drop into the 50`s and 60`s. Tomorrow, the area is forecast to remain under mostly zonal flow aloft while the broad surface low redevelops along the Front Range. Temperatures are forecast to be a tad cooler then today, but with no real air mass change, highs should still warm to near 90. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast to be over the area again with some drier air in place. However, near surface moisture is forecast to remain generally along and east of Highway 25. Storms might be able to fire up if it get warm enough as the lack of synoptic forcing will otherwise keep storms from firing up. Tomorrow night, could see some storms move near the Tri-State border if a cluster forms near the Front Range and can hold together. Otherwise, cloud cover is forecast to increase from storms to the west. Lows are forecast to hold in the upper 50`s and 60`s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 151 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Upper-level northwesterly flow will dominate majority of the long- term period as a high pressure system will set up near the Great Basin region and remain there through next weekend. This will have temperatures warm into the mid 80s through mid 90s. It will also allow mid-level shortwaves to give us chances at precipitation, but PoPs are low (<20) due to a lack of moisture through Wednesday night. There is about a 20% chance brief critical fire weather conditions will be seen in the far western CWA Wednesday, but winds are not supportive of it at this time. Thursday, we could see the LLJ moving some moisture back into the CWA which would increase PoPs and cloud cover. Diurnal PoPs look to increase to about 20-30 Thursday and onward and high temperatures may cool a bit, remaining in the 80s. Low temperatures will cool into the mid 50s to low 60s. Each day of the long-term looks very similar the other under this persistent pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1139 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period, though am watching for fog in the first 6 hours (15% chance). LLWS is also forecast for about the first 6 hours of the period with the strengthening low level jet. By mid morning, skies should be clear and LLWS should have ended. Will then have to keep an eye on the late afternoon and evening hours as a boundary moves through, shifting winds to out of the north for a few hours and potentially sparking thunderstorms. KMCK has the higher chance, but both have at least a 20% chance starting at 22Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...KAK