Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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173 FXUS63 KGLD 031905 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 105 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditional potential for isolated severe thunderstorms in vicinity of the Interstate 70 corridor in northwest Kansas Tuesday morning (~4-10 am MDT / ~5-11 am CDT). - A less active weather pattern is anticipated through the remainder of the work week (late Tuesday through Friday), with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 341 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft over the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains will transition to NW flow by mid-week.. as an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and 4-Corners extends E and NE across the Southern Plains. Today: While early morning convection has taken a toll on the thermodynamic environment over the Tri-State area.. i.e. reduced mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) and a cooler post-outflow low- level airmass.. regional analyses suggest that mid-level lapse rates will rapidly recover/steepen this afternoon (replenished by an otherwise pervasive elevated mixed layer in the lee of the Rockies). This.. along with decreasing cloud cover /strong insolation/ and modest low-level moisture (850 mb dewpoints ~10-14C) should foster moderate diurnal destabilization (~1000-1500 J/kg mlcape) this afternoon. An upper level disturbance situated over eastern CO at 08 UTC this morning (refer to SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will progress eastward into central KS this afternoon. Subsidence in the wake of this feature should tend to suppress convective development this afternoon, especially in northwest KS. While isolated diurnal development cannot be ruled out along geographically/climatologically favored portions of the Palmer Divide (CO) invof peak heating (~21-00 UTC).. substantial convective development is not anticipated. With the above in mind, expect predominately dry conditions. Tonight-Tue night: An upper level disturbance approaching the PAC NW coast at 08 UTC this morning will progress eastward across WA-ID (today), MT (tonight) and the Dakotas (Tue). An associated shear axis, extending southward along the lee of the northern and central Rockies late Mon night, will progress eastward across the Tri-State area Tue morning (~09-18 UTC).. accompanied by a modest lee cyclone (progressing eastward from southeast CO into southwest KS). Guidance suggests that southerly flow, low-level convergence and shallow moisture pooling on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned cyclone.. beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer (8.0-8.5 C/km H7-H5 lapse rates).. will foster a brief period of moderate to strong instability (1500-2500 J/kg mlcape) over portions of the Tri- State area Tue morning.. strongest along/south of I-70 in northwest KS ~12-15 UTC. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via recent (00-06 UTC) runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST vary considerably with regard to the location, coverage and magnitude of convective development in northwest KS Tue morning. With the above in mind, a narrow spatio-temporal window of opportunity for severe thunderstorms may exist over portions of the NWS Goodland CWA Tuesday morning -- mainly invof the I-70 corridor in northwest KS around ~10-16 UTC. Thereafter and otherwise, benign weather and dry conditions are anticipated. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 105 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Thursday...similar to 24 hours ago, daytime hours look to be precipitation free with a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the night south of Interstate 70 as 850-500mb moisture increases from the southeast while a weather disturbance move east off the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge and into our area. High temperatures in the 80s with low temperatures in the 50s. Friday...similar to Thursday and more generally speaking the past week, we`ll be waiting for a weather system to move off the Colorado front range and across our area, mainly in the very late afternoon through midnight/overnight hours. Presently, we have 40% chances for showers/thunderstorms during the night. High temperatures remain above normal with middle 80s to lower 90s forecast. Low temperatures fall into the middle 50s to lower 60s. Saturday-Sunday...we`ll continue to have 20% to 50% chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and overnight hours and mainly west of Highway 25 due to continued weather systems moving through from the west. High temperatures cool a bit into the 80s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Monday...500mb flow is a bit more from the northwest. There is pretty good agreement between the GFS/ECMWF that a weather disturbance moves through during the afternoon and overnight hours, supporting 20%-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are forecast to be near normal in the 80 to 85 degree range with low temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1034 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions are currently forecasted for each terminal. Winds will slowly shift from the west to more southerly throughout the day. After sunset breezy sustained winds look to occur as the LLJ increases across the area. A surface trough then moves across the area overnight bringing some low and mid level moisture to the area; there is potential for some storms to develop around sunrise around or east of the KGLD terminal. Confidence is not high enough at this time in storm development and location to introduce into the TAF. In wake of the surface trough winds will become northwesterly around 15-20 knots sustained. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BV LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...Trigg