Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
328 FXUS63 KGLD 011743 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1143 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern continues through the weekend as weather systems moves through during the late afternoon through overnight hours from west to east. Severe weather and locally excessive rainfall threats continue. - A less active weather pattern develops Monday through Friday with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and for some 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 This morning, the showers from earlier this evening have finally pushed out of the area. Cloud cover is beginning to clear from west to east. However, fog development has become more likely for the eastern half of the area with winds from the east and continued moisture advection. The showers and storms did interrupt the fog with Hill city going from 1/4 to 5 mile visibility, but there is a good chance the fog will thicken again and persist until after sunrise. By the noon hour, skies should be mostly clear across the area with temperatures beginning to warm into the 80`s. Will need to watch the early afternoon hours for storm development as convective temperature is forecast to be around the mid 80`s which could fire off storms as early as 1pm MT. Otherwise, the main driver for storms looks to be a shortwave moving through the zonal flow from west to east this evening. This shortwave looks to be a little more pronounced which well help storms move all the way across the area. For today`s severe weather chances, the initial storms that form will have the best chance of producing hail up to 2.5 inches similar to yesterday`s storms over the Palmer Divide. As storms progress east and cluster, the threat for hail above 2 inches should decrease, but hail above an inch and wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible pretty much across the area. A tornado or two could be possible with a well organized storm, but low level shear and vorticity continues to be forecast to be a bit on the low side. In regard to flooding, flooding chances will be low unless storms train over an area or unless a long lived supercell can develop. The bunkers right motion is forecast to only be 5-10 kts compared to the downshear and mean wind around 25-35 kts which would increase the risk for prolonged heavy rain and flooding. For tonight, storms should move out within a few hours of midnight unless supercells linger. After that, will need to watch for fog again as winds may initially have an easterly component. However, winds should be more southerly closer to sunrise with a surface low closer to the area which will lower fog chances. Tomorrow, a bit more of a pronounced trough is forecast to move through the Rockies and through the area. This will push the surface low closer to the area by the afternoon hours, and then through later in the day. With the strong southerly to southwesterly winds ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to be relatively hot with highs reaching the low 90`s. The winds could also bring in some drier air from the west which would begin to lower dewpoints into the 30`s for Eastern Colorado. Given recent rains, am not currently to concerned with the potential for explosive fire growth, however critical conditions could be met. For the later afternoon and evening hours, storms are forecast to fire up again with the surface low advancing and a dryline in Eastern Colorado. Any area behind the dryline will be unlikely to see storms fire up. For the rest of the area, all severe hazards are possible again, though will need to see how much dry air intrudes into the area as the flooding threat may be less likely. Will need to watch for wind gusts above 75 mph with DCAPE forecast to be above 1500 J/KG and a potential clustering of storms or a line of storms. Monday, the zonal flow is forecast to set up over the area again while a broad area of low pressure lingers along the Front Range. With little to no cold air advection following the prior day, temperatures are forecast to remain hot around 90. Storms will still be possible Monday, but the forecasted intrusion of more dry air has chances currently below 20%. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 108 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Upper-level northwesterly flow will dominate majority of the long- term period as a high pressure system will set up near the Great Basin region and remain there through next weekend. This will have temperatures warm into the mid 80s through mid 90s. It will also allow mid-level shortwaves to give us chances at precipitation, but PoPs are low (<20) due to a lack of moisture. Low temperatures will cool into the mid 50s to low 60s. Each day of the long-term looks very similar the other under this persistent pattern. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 For KGLD... VFR conditions is forecast for the remainder of the period, though there is a 10% chance for fog tonight. As long as the winds are from the south to southwest tonight, fog is not expected to form. Otherwise, the other main concern is the potential for storms this afternoon and evening. The best time for storms is beginning around 23Z, but there is a 15% chance that storms could form prior to 23Z. Storms could be severe with very large hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. For KMCK... Ceilings will continue to improve as the stratus deck erodes. The afternoon hours should be VFR with little concern for storms, but starting ~00Z-02Z is when storm chances increase. The storms could be severe with large hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist the rest of the period after the storms, but will need to watch for a low chance (20-30%) of fog overnight into Sunday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Flooding concerns linger into the weekend. However, chances have lowered a tad compared to previous days as yesterday`s storms generally produced around an inch or less of rain. Soil moisture is now forecast to generally be 50% or less across the area. For today`s storms, they could produce heavy rain or a small hail and rain mix, but they should be moving quick enough to limit additional rainfall to 1.5 inches or less. The exception will be if a supercell develops and persists as the forecast speed of supercells later is very slow at 10 mph or less. This could lead to heavy rainfall in a concentrated area. For tomorrow`s storms, the overall chance is low unless storms cluster. Otherwise, fairly fast storm movement and the addition of some dry air will limit flooding potential. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...KMK HYDROLOGY...KAK