Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
387 FXUS63 KGLD 030945 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 345 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditional potential for isolated severe thunderstorms in vicinity of the Interstate 70 corridor in northwest Kansas Tuesday morning (~4-10 am MDT / ~5-11 am CDT). - A less active weather pattern is anticipated through the remainder of the work week (late Tuesday through Friday), with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 341 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft over the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains will transition to NW flow by mid-week.. as an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and 4-Corners extends E and NE across the Southern Plains. Today: While early morning convection has taken a toll on the thermodynamic environment over the Tri-State area.. i.e. reduced mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) and a cooler post-outflow low- level airmass.. regional analyses suggest that mid-level lapse rates will rapidly recover/steepen this afternoon (replenished by an otherwise pervasive elevated mixed layer in the lee of the Rockies). This.. along with decreasing cloud cover /strong insolation/ and modest low-level moisture (850 mb dewpoints ~10-14C) should foster moderate diurnal destabilization (~1000-1500 J/kg mlcape) this afternoon. An upper level disturbance situated over eastern CO at 08 UTC this morning (refer to SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will progress eastward into central KS this afternoon. Subsidence in the wake of this feature should tend to suppress convective development this afternoon, especially in northwest KS. While isolated diurnal development cannot be ruled out along geographically/climatologically favored portions of the Palmer Divide (CO) invof peak heating (~21-00 UTC).. substantial convective development is not anticipated. With the above in mind, expect predominately dry conditions. Tonight-Tue night: An upper level disturbance approaching the PAC NW coast at 08 UTC this morning will progress eastward across WA-ID (today), MT (tonight) and the Dakotas (Tue). An associated shear axis, extending southward along the lee of the northern and central Rockies late Mon night, will progress eastward across the Tri-State area Tue morning (~09-18 UTC).. accompanied by a modest lee cyclone (progressing eastward from southeast CO into southwest KS). Guidance suggests that southerly flow, low-level convergence and shallow moisture pooling on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned cyclone.. beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer (8.0-8.5 C/km H7-H5 lapse rates).. will foster a brief period of moderate to strong instability (1500-2500 J/kg mlcape) over portions of the Tri- State area Tue morning.. strongest along/south of I-70 in northwest KS ~12-15 UTC. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via recent (00-06 UTC) runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST vary considerably with regard to the location, coverage and magnitude of convective development in northwest KS Tue morning. With the above in mind, a narrow spatio-temporal window of opportunity for severe thunderstorms may exist over portions of the NWS Goodland CWA Tuesday morning -- mainly invof the I-70 corridor in northwest KS around ~10-16 UTC. Thereafter and otherwise, benign weather and dry conditions are anticipated. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Wednesday...500mb heights slowly rise as upper level ridging strengthens over the western half of the country. There is a hint of moisture in the 700-500mb layer moving through the area from the north during the day along or immediately behind some cooler air and wind shift. Not much instability to work with and old school Totals Totals only in the lower 40s and K Index values 20-25 dont generally support any convection. Presently, the forecast is dry and thats seems reasonable this moment. 850mb temperatures in the 25C to 32C range support high temperatures in the 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s. Thursday...not a whole lot of change in the 500mb pattern. Daytime hours look to be precipitation free with a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the night as 850-500mb moisture increases from the southeast while weather disturbances move east off the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridges and into our area. 850mb temperatures are a little cooler, ranging from 19C to 27C. This would typically support high temperatures in the 80s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s. Friday...the tongue of better moisture in the 850-500mb layer over much of the area in the morning slowly moves east through the morning and out of the area by late afternoon with associated 20% pops with it. The next weather system per 700-500mb relative humidity forecasts emerges off the Colorado front range and potentially into far eastern Colorado by 00z Saturday, moving across the remainder of the area during the night with 30%-40% chances of showers and thunderstorms with it. High temperatures remain above normal in the 80s to around 90 with low temperatures in the 50s. Saturday...generally speaking, any mornings showers across the eastern half of the area should move out as the next weather system moves off the Colorado front range and into perhaps far eastern Colorado by the end of the day, continuing east across the entire area during the night in some form or fashion. Presently, 20% pops are forecast in the morning with 40% chances across far eastern Colorado late afternoon and 40%-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms during the night. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80 to 85 degree range with low temperatures in the 50s. Sunday...similar large scale scenario as Saturday with any morning showers/thunderstorms exiting in by late morning/early afternoon then waiting for next wave to move across from eastern Colorado during the night. Presently, 20%-40% chances for thunderstorms during the day, 30%-50% during the night. High temperatures cool a bit into the upper 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1032 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours. Confidence is low in directly impacting either KGLD or KMCK and VFR is expected to prevail. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...Trigg