Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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801 FXUS63 KGLD 270340 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 940 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds with a few chances for showers/storms through the remainder of the day. Severe weather is not expected. - Warm and active pattern is expected next week, with chances for storms bringing an associated flooding risk. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 The system which brought a cold front along with a few rounds of storms through the region yesterday evening into this morning has since continued off towards the east. A cu field has developed over the region this afternoon with 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT) temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. With another wave within the west-northwest flow, have started to see a few showers/storms developing across southwest Nebraska, moving generally east-southeastward. Shower/ storm chances are anticipated to increase with eastward extent. Severe weather is not expected. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the middle 40s to lower 50s. For the Memorial Day holiday, pleasant weather remains forecast as a ridge of high pressure builds in, giving mostly sunny skies, light west-northwesterly winds, and high temperatures in the middle 70s to middle 80s. Overnight, temperatures fall into the middle 40s to middle 50s and we`ll have slight chance for development of a few showers/storms for locations generally along/south of I-70 as a weak wave moves through. Additionally, winds veering towards the east- southeast may allow for development of fog and/or low stratus across parts of the area overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning - will continue to monitor. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Following the holiday, a more active pattern returns, anticipated to bring some moisture into the region over the work week. While the upper ridge moves over the Rockies on Tuesday, an embedded disturbance will move through from the southwest, introducing slight chance to chance PoPs by afternoon, continuing into the evening and overnight period. The upper ridge will move over the Plains mid- week, and an upper trough will enter the western CONUS. This will shove the ridge eastward and prompt shower/ storm development by Wednesday afternoon-evening. During the latter part of the work week, the upper low swings across the western Canada/US border, generating additional waves as it does so, allowing better chances for showers/storms. With the daily chances for thunderstorms generally moving off the high terrain to our west in the Tuesday through Friday timeframe, there is some potential for severe/flooding threats as ample shear, instability, and moisture (PWATs towards 1+ inch) is available. WPC has included parts of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday (far southern portions of the CWA), Wednesday (entire area), and Thursday (most of the area east of the CO/KS border). Heading into the weekend, there is lesser forecast confidence; however, the current forecast includes slight chance showers/ storms as a disturbance is anticipated to move through on the backside of the upper trough. Flow aloft then becomes increasingly zonal as the trough continues off to the east and it appears upstream ridging begins building in, potentially bringing a warming trend and some hotter temperatures to the region at the start of June. Regarding temperatures, highs are forecast generally in the upper 70s to middle 80s, slightly cooler at the end of the work week/start of the next weekend. Overnight lows are forecast generally in the upper 40s to 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 940 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 13z. From 14z-01z, northwest winds under 10kts veer to the north then northeast at similar speeds. After 02z, winds continue to veer to the northeast then east at speeds under 10kts. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 13z. From 14z-00z, a northwest to northerly wind at speeds up to 11kts is expected. After 01z, winds veer to the northeast, decreasing to around 5kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...99