768
FXUS63 KGLD 290809
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
209 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for severe weather and flooding throughout the week.
  Confidence in specific hazards change each day, but a very
  active pattern is expected.

- Potential for critical fire weather conditions Sunday and
  into early next week. High temperatures could also climb into
  the 90`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Morning and early afternoon convection occurred along narrow
band of 700 mb frontogenesis which has moved southeast of the
area. Additional convection is expected later this afternoon and
into this evening as a shortwave trough moves out of the
Rockies. There is also a weakening cold front moving out of
Nebraska and possible outflow boundary from earlier convection.
CAMs show best chances for additional storms will generally be
south of a Joes, Colorado, to Scott City, Kansas, line.
Moderate surface based instability early in the evening will
quickly weak by around 03z when storms will probably become
elevated with persistent MUCAPE. Deep layer shear will also be
strongest early in the evening before weakening with time. So
all signs point to a marginal severe risk early, but storms
weakening after about 03z. Mean precipitation amounts through
06z are around a quarter of an inch, but some locally higher
amounts of a little over 1 inch will be possible according to
HREF 90th percentile QPF. A few scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms may persist after midnight mainly in eastern areas
with additional amounts of less than a tenth of an inch. Low
temperatures will be in the 50s.

Ridge axis moves east on Wednesday with a pronounced shortwave
trough moving into the Rockies in the afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will initiate on the Front Range and move across
eastern Colorado in the afternoon, probably not reaching the
Kansas border until after 00z. Most if not all of the area will
be dry until then with high temperatures in the upper 70s to
around 80. Broken line of showers and thunderstorms will then
move west to east across the area Wednesday night. Initial line
may have a hail/wind threat early in the evening before
transitioning to mainly a wind threat further east later in the
evening. 6-hour mean precipitation amounts are around a quarter
of an inch through 06z, with some locally heavier amounts of 1
to 1.25 inches possible generally north of Interstate 70.
Amounts between 06-12z will be lighter, though can`t completely
rule out some local amounts in eastern areas approaching 1 inch.
Low temperature will be in the 50s to around 60.

Showers and thunderstorms may persist into Thursday morning as
the upper trough axis and accompanying surface cold front slowly
move through the area. Should see additional post frontal
development during the afternoon as another vorticity lobe
rotates around the main low in the northern plains. Not sure how
much instability can recover given the morning clouds and
precipitation, but there is some potential for severe storms
with any clusters propagating off the higher terrain to the
west, with the main hazard being wind. Deep layer shear tops out
at around 30 kts which may limit more organized convective
threat. However, as storms move further east Thursday night the
0-6 km winds diminish to 10 kts or less, suggesting slow storm
motions. Mean 6-hour QPF through 06z for areas east of Highway
25 around a half inch but higher percentiles are between 1-2
inches. There is some concern for flooding given these
parameters and antecedent rainfall the previous few days. High
temperatures will be in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

The pattern does not change much on Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms linger in the morning, mainly in eastern areas,
then redevelop in the afternoon with another wave rotating
around the main upper low now in central Canada and low level
upslope flow. Instability is weak to moderate, highest in
Colorado, but there is an increase in deep layer shear to 40-50
kts, sufficient for a severe risk with any discrete cells in
the afternoon and evening hours. However, QPF is much lower
compared to previous days which may mitigate any additional
flooding concerns. Not much change in temperatures with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

For the weekend and into next week, active weather is forecast with
continued daily chances for storms and severe weather. Next week is
beginning to look like we`ll see some of our hottest temperatures of
the season so far in the 90`s.

For Friday and Saturday, the area looks to be in a inbetween pattern
with zonal flow on the back side of an upper trough. With this,
temperatures are forecast to generally be in the 70`s and 80`s. A
mix of clouds and afternoon/evening storm chances remain in the
forecast as available moisture over the area is forecast to remain
relatively high. Severe storms will likely be possible both days,
but could be fairly limited or marginal as the forecast lack of
synoptic forcing will likely limit storms to forming off the higher
terrain in Colorado and moving east.

For Sunday and the beginning of next week, the overall trend in
guidance favors some ridging, but some smaller waves moving through
the flow may keep us more zonal. As such, near to above average
temperatures in the 80`s and 90`s are forecast along with continued
daily chances for storms. That being said, chances are a bit lower
compared to this current week as drier air may be able to move into
the area if the flow takes on more of a southwesterly direction or
if the ridging amplifies. This could shift storm chances more to the
east where moisture would more likely remain available. May need to
keep an eye out for critical fire conditions on Sunday as a smaller
wave moves through and when temperatures are currently forecast to
be into the 90`s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Winds will become southerly overnight as moisture advection
continues. Am watching for some patchy fog/stratus potential
around sunrise due to the continued moisture advection, recently
saturated boundary layer and light winds. At this time KGLD may
be the only terminal affected. Winds will remain southerly
throughout the day with sustained breezy winds around 20 knots
continuing. Another round of storms perhaps severe moves into W
Kansas after 00Z Thursday. Confidence isn`t as high at KMCK so
will leave the mention out for now.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Trigg