Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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097 FXUS63 KGLD 311151 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 551 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms remain forecast for both today and Saturday. Storms will generally form in Eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening hours and move east. Flooding remains a concern with heavy rainfall the last few days and more heavy rain possible. - Much warmer with 20%-40% chances for thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. Sunday could see severe storms. Highs in the 80s and 90s. - Generally drier Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 248 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 The short term pattern is forecast to remain much of the same with mostly zonal flow aloft over the area. Henceforth, daily chances for storms and near average temperatures are forecast for today and tomorrow. As of 2am, there were two lines present across the area around Highway 83 and in Eastern Colorado. A third line may develop as the two outflow boundaries are nearing each other. This may cause storms to persist through the early morning hours and maybe even a little past sunrise for Eastern portions of the area. The forecast will hinge on what happens with these storms as the additional moisture in the air column (along with near surface flow advecting moisture in from the east) could keep the area cloud covered and keep temperatures in the 70`s. Otherwise, areas that see sun for most of the day could warm to around 80. The other thing to watch with these early storms is for outflow boundaries to kick out which could spark storms through the day, especially with the low level moisture present. So currently have a 20% chance for storms through the day in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska as any boundary could spark a storm. Storms would be unlikely to be severe during the morning and early afternoon, but the chance isn`t zero. The higher chance for storms is this evening as storms are forecast to develop in the higher terrain of Eastern Colorado and move east into the area. The setup is pretty similar to last evening, however surface winds may be a bit more from the south and contribute to higher effective shear for the area. This would increase the threat for large hail up to two inches at least initially until storms move off to the east and potentially cluster. Even with the larger hail possible, most hail would likely be below 1.5 inches with lots of it and heavy rain possible. A few wind gusts to 65 mph are also possible, but chances look similar to last evening which is low. Storms are forecast to slowly move southeast and exit the area within a few hours of midnight. Tomorrow, some of the forecast will depend on how long storms linger tonight. If storms don`t linger and there aren`t boundaries moving through the area, Saturday should see partly cloudy skies through the day. Highs would warm into the low to mid 80`s. The afternoon and evening hours would then bring another chance for storms with a similar scenario of storms forming over Eastern Colorado and moving east. There could be a few additional isolated to scattered storms ahead of the main line as instability is forecast to be greater with the warmer temperatures and moisture availability remaining roughly the same. With instability forecast to be higher and effective shear also forecast to be higher, storms could produce larger hail (potentially greater than 2") and survive enough to move across the entire area. Wind gusts to 70 mph and a tornado or two could be possible (though tornado parameters continue to look weak in the forecast). As with the previous days, heavy rain and flooding will be a concern for most of the area given recent heavy rains. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 248 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 For Sunday through Tuesday, the upper flow continues to be forecast to be mostly zonal, though some slight ridging followed by a low amplitude trough is forecast for Sunday. The slight ridging Sunday and the development of a low pressure center north of the area is forecast to switch our lower level flow to out of the southwest. This would help bring in some warmer and drier air into the area. That being said, the drier air looks to be confined to Eastern Colorado (if it moves in at all) with surface dewpoints remaining in the 50`s and 60`s for the rest of the area. With high temperatures forecast to reach the low 90`s and maybe even the mid 90`s, Eastern Colorado could see RH drop into the mid teens. Critical fire weather conditions for that area would be a concern, but the recent rains will likely limit any potential for rapid fire growth. Storms would then develop where the moisture remains and track east across the area along with the upper trough. Severe weather would be likely with these storms. Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be a tad cooler, though still near 90 with storm chances both days. However, moisture availability may begin to lower with will lower storm and severe chances, though Tuesday may be aided by another upper trough and surface low. Wednesday and Thursday are currently forecast to see ridging develop over the area. There is some uncertainty with where the ridge axis would be and if an upper low forecast to be over the Great Lakes can deepen and dig west. As long as the ridge begins to influence the area, warmer temperatures, drier air, and lower storm chances would become more likely. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through the period, though will have to watch for some lower ceilings this morning. The storms should have prevented ceilings from lowering, but earlier guidance was suggesting a period of ceilings around 500ft. Otherwise, storms are possible from 22-04Z, but most likely around 00Z. Storms could be severe with large hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. The rest of the night is forecast to have VFR conditions and relatively light southeasterly winds. For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period, will need to watch for lowering ceilings and a brief round of showers through the morning hours. Then this afternoon/evening, storms are possible from 21-06Z with the most likely time around 00Z. Once the storms pass, VFR conditions with light southeasterly winds are forecast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Still have concerns with flooding through the weekend. Multiple advisories and a few warnings were sent out last night as most of the area received another 1 to 4 inches of rain. Compounding this with the multiple inches of rain received the prior days have left parts of the area with 50-75% soil saturation, leaving them more prone to flooding. The potential help the next few days is that the forecast soundings have downshear vectors around 40-45 kts which is much faster than the previous days and would require more efficient storms to produce more than two inches. Will have to watch for storms clustering and training over areas as this would offset the faster motion. So far the chances aren`t watch worthy, but the flooding threat continues. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...KAK HYDROLOGY...KAK