067
FXUS63 KGRB 230353
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1053 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms possible at times this afternoon and
  again Thursday, mainly across northern and central Wisconsin.

- Rivers over central Wisconsin may reach bankfull or even briefly
  surpass flood stage on Thursday.

- Better chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday
  into Friday night. There are more chances of rain later in the
  Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Isolated showers and storms developed across west-central
Wisconsin and near the Upper Michigan border this afternoon.
Some of these showers and storms will move into central and
north-central Wisconsin late this afternoon into early this
evening. Any storms are not expected to severe. The rain should
come to an end an hour or two after sunset. Overnight, skies will
become clear with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Mostly sunny
skies will prevail on Thursday with highs in the 70s with
afternoon relative humidity values down to 35 to 50 percent.

Tranquil conditions should prevail Thursday night. Have removed
the small chances of rain late Thursday night as the latest models
are trending a little slower. Showers and thunderstorms will
spread from west to east during the day Friday and linger into
Friday night before ending. Severe storms are not anticipated at
this time, but some of the stronger storms could produce gusty
winds and small hail. The system will move east of the area
Friday night, bringing an end to the rain with tranquil conditions
expected on Saturday.

There are some differences in the models on Sunday into Memorial
Day as low pressure moves across the western Great Lakes. The
track of the system will make a difference in the chances of
rain and how much rain would fall across the area. At this time,
the track of the low is expected to stay south of the area which
would limit any risk of severe storms. Any upper level disturbance
will bring a chance of showers and a few storms on Tuesday with
Wednesday mainly dry.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Recent rain
may lead to some patchy ground fog, but will not include at this
time. A stray shower will remain possible through the late
evening, but most spots will stay dry tonight. Another chance for
a few showers returns across northern WI Thursday afternoon, but
should have little to no impact on flying conditions. A rumble of
thunder will be possible but will not include.

Winds will remain on the lighter side tonight, mainly under
10 kts, then pick back up again on Thursday but will not be as
gusty as Wednesday, with gusts to ~20 kts expected.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Bersch