Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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567 FXUS63 KGRB 282114 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 414 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through late this evening. Severe weather is not expected, but small hail and localized heavy rainfall could occur in the stronger storms, mainly in east-central WI. - Due to recent rainfall, a few rivers are expected to remain at bankfull but below minor flood stage through late this week. - Areas of frost are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday morning across far northern WI. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 414 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Short Term...Tonight and Wednesday Main concern in this forecast period is the evolution of the scattered showers and thunderstorms through late this evening, especially in east-central WI. This evening through tonight...The last of the embedded shortwaves within a mid-level trough over Ontario will continue to slowly move over the central Great Lakes region during this forecast period. The mid-level support from this shortwave, in combination with several land boundaries colliding in an area with around 800 J/kg of CAPE, caused thunderstorms to quickly pop-up in east-central WI. With little deep-layer shear of 20-25 kts in this area, the storms have and will struggle to maintain an updraft, resulting in locally heavy rainfall and small hail. Meanwhile, rain over central and north- central WI will shift eastward and combine with the scattered showers and storms in east-central WI. This will keep chances for showers and storms in east-central WI through late this evening. Additionally, radar is picking up on isolated showers and storms in western WI this afternoon, that may drop into central and north- central WI this evening. However, these showers are diurnally driven, so anticipate these showers and storms to decrease as the sun sets. The remainder of the night will be dry with some clearing in central and north-central WI, as high pressure sneaks into the region. Wednesday...High pressure will continue to build over the area allowing for the return of dry weather. Plenty of sunshine is expected for Wednesday, however, forecast soundings indicate a cu field developing in the afternoon. High temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal with values ranging from low to middle 60s along the lakeshore, to the middle 60s to low 70s elsewhere. Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Dry weather is anticipated for the first portion of this forecast period before the pattern becomes unsettled starting Friday. Wednesday night through Friday...High pressure is expected to remain over the area for Wednesday night into Thursday and keep conditions dry. However, with the high pressure overhead into Thursday morning, chilly temperatures are expected with lows ranging from the low 30s to low 40s. Anticipate frost to develop for some locations, especially across the Northwoods, where temperatures will be coldest. The high pressure will gradually exit on Thursday and Thursday night, allowing winds to turn southwesterly and lift warmer, moist air into the region for Friday. Depending on how quickly or slowly this high pressure and associated upper-level ridge exits to the east on Friday, the forecast area may see the next chance for precip from the trailing embedded shortwave. Models indicate much of the forecast area should remain dry on Friday, with the exception in far north- central WI, where rain may develop later on Friday. Rest of the extended...Models are struggling with the evolution of the upper-level pattern and how the embedded shortwaves will interact beyond Friday. However, there does appear to be multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms at times throughout the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Showers continued across the Northwoods through early this afternoon as a line of showers began to move into central and north-central, impacting the RHI TAF site with reduced visibilities. Meanwhile, thunderstorms began to develop off of a lake breeze near MTW. The line of showers is expected to continue tracking eastward through this afternoon, while additional showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of it over the east-central WI TAF sites this afternoon into this evening. Not certain the thunder chances will develop at the central WI TAF sites following the line of showers, but have a TEMPO group from 21z to 00z as this is when the hi-res models are indicating the most likely timing if storms occur. Precip chances will come to an end from northwest to southeast this evening into late this evening. Have the precip exiting the east-central WI TAF sites by 06z. Good flying weather returns for Wednesday, with low end VFR afternoon cu developing in central WI. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk/Kruk AVIATION.......Kruk