374
FXUS62 KGSP 282137
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
537 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 530 PM EDT Tuesday: No major changes were needed as the
forecast remains on track. Still seeing some lingering low-end wind
gusts, especially across the mtns, but these should taper off
through the evening hours. Dry conditions continue across the area
and daytime cumulus, and a few upper cirrus, remain in place this
afternoon. Cumulus will gradually dissipate with the loss of daytime
heating, but a few passing cirrus should linger through the evening
hours.

Otherwise, synoptic cold front and sfc trough now along the Atlantic
coast, with cyclonic upper flow over the eastern CONUS. Weak
inversion aloft should preclude any deep convection this aftn,
although shallow convective layer beneath that inversion will permit
a healthy cu field across much of the area. Ridging will strengthen
over the CWA tonight into Wednesday as upper trough makes slight
eastward progress. Continuing relatively dry westerly flow, combined
with diurnal mixing this aftn lowering crossover temp, suggests
minimal fog tonight despite fairly good radiational cooling
conditions; min temps will end up 2-3 degrees below normal. Ridge
should reinforce capping inversion and inhibit deep convection again
on Wednesday. A shortwave rotating through the trough will however
strengthen the low-level gradient; along with deeper mixing as a
result of lower dewpoints that suggests slightly windier conditions
Wednesday. Max temps however will trend down a couple degrees,
returning to about normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday: Broad cyclonic flow aloft will remain
overhead through much of the short-term period as cP surface high
shifts from the Upper Great Lakes region and sets up shop across the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas by Friday. Cyclonic flow aloft will shift
offshore later Friday as a steep upper ridge axis slowly builds in
from the west. Needless to say, the forecast will be warm and very
dry as dewpoints remain in the 40s and 50s across the CFWA. Enjoy
this now as this could be one of the last stretch of actual Spring
before we become entrenched with heat and high humidity for the
coming Summer months. Temperatures will be slightly below-normal
through the forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday: The aforementioned upper ridge axis will
drift over the area and shift offshore by the second half of the
weekend. In this case, return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will
filter back into the region. Saturday will likely be the last
"nice" day we experience before the pattern becomes active once
again. Model guidance still suggests a series of shortwaves
to cross across the southeastern CONUS through the end of the
forecast period. This will place the CFWA back into a diurnally
driven convective regime, with some enhancement with each passing
shortwave. Temperatures will gradually creep back up to near-normal
values and even above normal by the end of the medium range,
including the dreadful humid airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR. Diurnal cu at 050-070 will be seen this
afternoon but are expected to remain too shallow to support precip,
beneath weak midlevel inversion. Winds prevailing in NW quadrant
with weak trough east of the region, but with overall gradient
weak some variability is expected. Low-end occasional gusts this
aftn. Although good radiational cooling conditions will be in place,
likely too dry tonight for fog/stratus. Approach of shortwave Wed
should permit deeper mixing and slightly better gust potential,
but precip chances still much too low to mention. This feature
could also allow KCLT to back to near due W, perhaps even WSW,
but not confident enough to advertise a switch this far out.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected to remain as drier weather prevails
through the end of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...Wimberley