603
FXUS62 KGSP 281343
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
943 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Tuesday: No major changes to thinking for the near term
forecast. A quieter stretch of weather kicks off as the surface
cold front exits the CWA and heads out to sea. An omega blocking
pattern emerges over the CONUS and keeps the eastern trough north
of the CWA. Subsidence inversion should cap off any deep convection
east of the Appalachian spine, although a shallow convective layer
should permit some cu to develop diurnally today. Slightly deeper
convection in East TN could lead to a few sprinkles, which could
move into the NC mountains this aftn/evening, but this still
is unlikely enough that PoPs are kept below slight chance even
there. The somewhat broad pressure gradient will allow for some
low-end wind gusts across the higher elevations this afternoon
and diminish into the overnight hours. Upper flow should start
to turn more NW by tonight as the ridge axis over the central
plains moves eastward.  Temps look to be on track but made minor
adjustments to hourly trends today. Still expecting maxes in the
mid to upper 80s east of the mountains with overnight temps dipping
a bit due to drier air reducing dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 AM Tuesday...The latter half of the week looks fairly
quiet for our area as we should remain under a favorable part of
an amplifying pattern in the nrn stream. Guidance indicates a slow
transition between broadly cyclonic flow aloft associated with an
upper low spinning over Quebec. Meanwhile, the upper ridge axis will
move from the High Plains to the Great Lakes/mid-MS Valley region,
supporting a relatively cool continental high that gradually builds
in from the N/NW, especially Thursday. We might not notice the
high temps all that much as they will still be close to normal,
but the air mass will be dry and that will be noticed. Low temps
should be about five degrees below normal. One wonders if this
will be our last stint of relatively cool mornings now that we
are getting to the end of May.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 237 AM Tuesday...Looks like we should get the first half
of the weekend with nice weather as a mid/upper ridge builds
in from the west, supporting high pressure, which keeps high
temps a few degrees below normal and low temps nicely cool
Friday night. However, the pattern is progressive and the model
guidance is consistent with moving the ridge axis overhead late
Saturday. Once that happens, weak sfc high pressure gets pushed
off the Carolina coast and moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico
will improve. Showers and thunderstorms could arrive as early as
Saturday night as a lead short wave is shown to ride up the ridge
from the west. Whether or not this takes the form of a dying MCS
remains to be seen, but that is plausible. Sunday begins a more
active period for us as we regain an air mass more favorable to
diurnal convection. Much beyond that, confidence remains low as
there is poor run-to-run consistency with how to handle the next
mid/upper trof to the west. Previous runs had a large cut-off
low and tonight`s runs bear little resemblance. Instead, we see
a series of short waves moving along in a more low amplitude
flow and a compact upper low somewhere not west of here. A common
theme is that we stay unsettled with diurnally driven or enhanced
convection, so a chance of precip will be kept for the early
part of the week. Temps climb back to a few degrees above normal,
while low temps have a more noticeable climb to something closer
to five above normal by Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. Winds will continue to prevail NW and
remain light outside the mountains. KAVL could see some low-end
gusts of 15-20kts during the afternoon period, but wind gusts
stay confined to the mountains.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected to remain as drier weather prevails
through the end of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CP/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CP