Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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582 FXUS62 KGSP 202212 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 612 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm high pressure will persist across the region through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest on Thursday, bringing a chance of showers and storms mainly to the mountains. The front will stall over the area Friday, keeping rain chances through weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 600 PM EDT Monday: Finally seeing some isolated showers develop across the mountains this evening. No lightning is currently present in this activity, but thunder will remain possible through sunset. Cumulus that developed this afternoon is dwindling in coverage since it`s past peak heating. Thicker cloud cover continues across portions of the North Carolina mountains this evening. Main change needed was the tweaking of PoPs, cloud cover, and winds through the near term period. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Persistence looks like a really good forecast over the next 24 hours as the salient features don`t change much. We continue to enjoy a positively-tilted mid/upper ridge that supports weak high pressure to our northeast. As a result, expect another round of mountain valley low stratus/fog late tonight, with some locally dense. Once that mixes out in the middle-part of the morning, the day should be quiet again east of the mtns, but ridgetop showers can be expected in the mid/late afternoon. High temps will nudge upward a bit, maybe a category above normal Tuesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday: An upper ridge axis starts out the period over the area. The axis slowly moves east and becomes suppressed by the end of the period as some weak short waves top move through the flow. The result Is a very low chance of diurnal mountain convection Wednesday, then a better chance on Thursday as the cap erodes allowing sbCAPE to be realized. For now, chance PoP on Thursday is limited to the mountains and I-40 corridor, with isolated PoP south of there to the I-85 corridor. Highs will be well above normal both days, making a run at 90 for the CLT Metro, Upstate, and NE GA. Lows 5 to 10 degrees above normal as well. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Monday: An active pattern returns for this period as a series of short waves move east across the area. These will push a series of low pressure/frontal systems across the area as well. Expect good to numerous, mainly diurnal, convective coverage each day, with the highest PoP favoring the mountains. Still to early to be certain on the severe storm chances given the potential for limited instability, even though forcing and shear will be decent. Heavy rain potential may eventually creep up as well, especially if the better coverage hits the same areas day after day. Highs will drop a few degrees on Friday then remain nearly steady through the period. Lows rise a few degrees then remain nearly steady. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Diurnal cu continue this evening at low VFR levels. Winds are mainly E/SE thanks to both mixing and the southward migration of sfc high. Ridgetop SHRA or even TSRA are possible through early this evening, but have VCSH mentioned at KAVL through this evening. SE flow tonight will produce VFR to MVFR stratus in the foothills. KAVL is likely to see valley fog develop again hence prevailing IFR mention after 06Z. River valley fog appears possible, most likely affecting KHKY which gets MVFR around 09Z. Outlook: High pressure remains dominant over our area through Wednesday, but isolated mountaintop convection is still expected each afternoon. Precip and restrictions are both possible with next frontal system which should arrive late Thursday or Friday. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...AR/PM SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...PM