Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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978 FXUS62 KGSP 301018 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 618 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure to our north will keep temperatures a bit below normal through the end of the week. Once the high moves off to our east Saturday night, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms typical of late spring and early summer. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Thursday: With clearer skies across most of the area all night, calm winds and drier air continuing to stream in, overnight radiational cooling dropped temps a tick or two lower than forecasted. Adjusted for now, but daytime temps will quickly warm after sunrise. Slight changes to winds but nothing of note. Forecast remains on track. Meanwhile, the dominating omega blocking pattern begins to minimize as the ridge axis squeezes eastward by Thursday night. As the upper trough north of the CWA starts to move east as well and the surface high pressure grows, winds will turn more northerly, but remain light as the pressure gradient broadens. Guidance from the GFS and EURO keep rain chances out of the forecast given the shunted moisture to the region for the time being. Clear skies until this afternoon when a few mid-level cumulus form east of the mountains. By tonight, the upper ridge axis will be just west of the CWA. and continue to stream in drier air, keeping dewpoints down. Highs today will struggle to reach 80 east of the mountains with cooler overnight lows around climo. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1247 AM EDT Thursday: The first part of the weekend still looks relatively quiet as a mid/upper ridge builds in Friday and Friday night, which finally brings a center of sfc high pressure down over the Carolinas on Saturday morning. Friday should be our last day of below normal temps and dry air in this string, because once the ridge axis crosses overhead and moves toward the coast on Saturday, the high gets pushed offshore and the moisture will start to move back up from the Gulf of Mexico. Think that Saturday afternoon should be rain-free at this time, with temps returning to normal. However, Saturday night there will be a small chance that showers could move in from the southwest or develop over the southern mountains in the light southerly upslope flow overnight. Some of the guidance is more aggressive with bringing some precip in from the west, perhaps because of some sort of loosely organized convective system developing closer to a cold front to our west Saturday afternoon/evening and then making a run at the mountains. Prefer to keep the precip probs low over the mtns until we get a better sense for that potential in the HREF. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 243 AM EDT Thursday: The medium range continues to look like a return to summer-like mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday. The upper pattern should feature a flattened nearly-zonal flow, but with several weak waves running through it, the strongest of which may dampen as it moves past to the north on Sunday. The suggestion in some of the guidance is that a remnant weak cold front will get strung out west-east across the region in the wake of this wave, and that would act as a focus for more storms as moisture remains pooled over the region for the rest of the period. Meanwhile, other convectively-induced waves could move along and across the region on any given day. Precip probs a bit above climo seem appropriate, with a peak in the mid/late afternoon each day. The details are too sketchy for anything else for now. Not yet buying the GFS and its closed low over the region by mid-week. So, we will keep to the plan of temps gradually rising above climo and eventually reaching mid/upper 80s with increasing humidity as we work through the week. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions again through the end of the TAF period. CIGS will remain VFR with BKN/FEW likely as mid-level cumulus develop this afternoon outside the mountains. Wind gusts have gone light to calm at all terminals and begin to pick up shortly after daybreak. A strong area of high pressure will shift eastward today and toggle wind directions more N/NE through the period for terminals outside the mountains. This shouldn`t cause any issues as wind speeds are still expected to be light. FG/BR is not anticipated at any terminal tonight given the much drier air continuing to move into the region. Outlook: VFR conditions and dry weather through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances may return by the end of the weekend and into next week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...CP