978
FXUS62 KGSP 301018
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
618 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure to our north will keep temperatures a bit below
normal through the end of the week. Once the high moves off to our
east Saturday night, we should see a slow warm up with a return of
the mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms typical
of late spring and early summer.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Thursday: With clearer skies across most of the area
all night, calm winds and drier air continuing to stream in,
overnight radiational cooling dropped temps a tick or two lower than
forecasted. Adjusted for now, but daytime temps will quickly warm
after sunrise. Slight changes to winds but nothing of note. Forecast
remains on track.

Meanwhile, the dominating omega blocking pattern begins to minimize
as the ridge axis squeezes eastward by Thursday night. As the upper
trough north of the CWA starts to move east as well and the surface
high pressure grows, winds will turn more northerly, but remain
light as the pressure gradient broadens. Guidance from the GFS and
EURO keep rain chances out of the forecast given the shunted
moisture to the region for the time being. Clear skies until this
afternoon when a few mid-level cumulus form east of the mountains.
By tonight, the upper ridge axis will be just west of the CWA. and
continue to stream in drier air, keeping dewpoints down. Highs today
will struggle to reach 80 east of the mountains with cooler
overnight lows around climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1247 AM EDT Thursday: The first part of the weekend still
looks relatively quiet as a mid/upper ridge builds in Friday and
Friday night, which finally brings a center of sfc high pressure
down over the Carolinas on Saturday morning. Friday should be
our last day of below normal temps and dry air in this string,
because once the ridge axis crosses overhead and moves toward the
coast on Saturday, the high gets pushed offshore and the moisture
will start to move back up from the Gulf of Mexico. Think that
Saturday afternoon should be rain-free at this time, with temps
returning to normal. However, Saturday night there will be a small
chance that showers could move in from the southwest or develop
over the southern mountains in the light southerly upslope flow
overnight. Some of the guidance is more aggressive with bringing
some precip in from the west, perhaps because of some sort of
loosely organized convective system developing closer to a cold
front to our west Saturday afternoon/evening and then making a
run at the mountains. Prefer to keep the precip probs low over
the mtns until we get a better sense for that potential in the HREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 243 AM EDT Thursday: The medium range continues to look like
a return to summer-like mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms
beginning Sunday. The upper pattern should feature a flattened
nearly-zonal flow, but with several weak waves running through it,
the strongest of which may dampen as it moves past to the north on
Sunday. The suggestion in some of the guidance is that a remnant
weak cold front will get strung out west-east across the region
in the wake of this wave, and that would act as a focus for more
storms as moisture remains pooled over the region for the rest
of the period. Meanwhile, other convectively-induced waves could
move along and across the region on any given day. Precip probs
a bit above climo seem appropriate, with a peak in the mid/late
afternoon each day. The details are too sketchy for anything else
for now. Not yet buying the GFS and its closed low over the region
by mid-week. So, we will keep to the plan of temps gradually rising
above climo and eventually reaching mid/upper 80s with increasing
humidity as we work through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions again through the end of the
TAF period. CIGS will remain VFR with BKN/FEW likely as mid-level
cumulus develop this afternoon outside the mountains. Wind gusts
have gone light to calm at all terminals and begin to pick up
shortly after daybreak. A strong area of high pressure will shift
eastward today and toggle wind directions more N/NE through the
period for terminals outside the mountains. This shouldn`t cause any
issues as wind speeds are still expected to be light. FG/BR is not
anticipated at any terminal tonight given the much drier air
continuing to move into the region.

Outlook: VFR conditions and dry weather through Saturday. Shower and
thunderstorm chances may return by the end of the weekend and into
next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CP