364
FXUS62 KGSP 271833
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
233 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier conditions return Tuesday through Saturday. By the
end of next weekend, high pressure will become centered near Bermuda
which creates a southerly flow with more humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday: Deep stacked low over the Great Lakes
region has placed the CFWA into a warm sector regime as a cold front
encroaches the region from the northwest. Airmass recovery is
underway as cloud debris from the showers and thunderstorms this
morning scour out. Lots of sunshine out there right now, but not
necessarily a good thing. With good kinematics in place,
destabilization is the one lacking parameter that`s holding the CFWA
back from receiving decent severe weather coverage. Current
mesoanalysis indicates that the atmosphere should recover and
develop 1000-2000+ J/kg of sbCAPE to go along with 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear and 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE by late this afternoon.
CAMs are not excited about convection firing up this
afternoon/evening, ahead of the cold front. Strong to severe storms
will be possible with any that develop, with the main threats being
large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado can`t be ruled,
but SRH are not impressive, while low-level shear is high enough to
complete tornadogenesis. Storm mode would support supercells and
multi-clusters if a few cells form in the same area, mainly
across western NC and northern Upstate SC. Afternoon highs will
be near normal due to cloud debris from earlier.

The aforementioned cold front will enter the CFWA from the west later
this evening and complete a full fropa just before daybreak Tuesday.
Winds will turn to a west-northwesterly to northwesterly component,
dry air entrainment prevails through the rest of the period. A few
showers may develop behind the front along the NC/TN border after
the front passes just before midnight tonight, but that`s about all
that will be squeezed out of what`s left in the shallow layer of low-
level moisture. Broad upper troughiness will set up shop over the
eastern CONUS through the end of the near-term as heights drop a few
dm. Post-frontal conditions will be in store for Tuesday as a
downslope component filters in and dewpoints lower into the 50s,
with highs still managing to reach the low to mid 80s for most
locations outside of the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Monday...The short range period begins with nearly
zonal flow aloft as a cP sfc high builds south out of Canada. This
airmass will mix into the fcst area thru the period and help
maintain low RH values during the afternoon and the overnight
periods. Thus, a dense fog threat will be quite limited. With near
normal temps each afternoon, conds will be rather pleasant due to
the prevailing dry air. The latest GFS continues to show a weak
bndry ahead of the sfc high bringing limited amts of llvl moisture
to the wrn NC mtns Wed evening, but confidence is too low for a PoP
mention as other guidance mixes in a good amt of dry air within the
bndry convg zone.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...Upper heights fall quickly early in the ext
range as a strong ulvl trof swings south over the ern CONUS. This
trof will provide upward vertical forcing, however, precip
generation will be quite limited due to a broad Canadian high
shunting GOM and Atl moisture transport into the FA. The column
remains deeply dry Fri and Sat, with the best chance for precip
possibly not returning until Sun as a srn stream h5 s/w advances
toward the area. Even this low precip potential is uncertain as the
ECMWF is the only op model showing any QPF response as the other
models keep a GOM moisture feed closed. Temps will cool a little in
this environment as the cP airmass builds in more fully. Highs will
likely be held a couple degrees below normal Fri thru the weekend,
while lows remain near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Southwesterly winds with low-end gusts will
remain in place through the evening, ahead of an encroaching cold
front. Cloud debris from the showers and thunderstorms earlier today
has mostly scoured out. Lingering cu (040-050) will continue to roam
the sky, with some potentially expanding into a shower or
thunderstorm. Confidence was only high enough at KCLT for a TEMPO
thunderstorm and associated restrictions. Kept the rest of the TAFs
in the 18Z update dry. A shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out
elsewhere, but confidence was too low for a mention at this time due
to isolated coverage in the forecast. The cold front will sweep
across the area overnight as winds turn to a west-northwesterly
component and remain that way through the rest of the forecast
period. Some high clouds and diurnally driven cu may develop Tuesday
afternoon, while conditions remain dry and VFR at all terminals.
Some low-end gusts are expected during peak heating Tuesday as well.

Outlook: Drier weather is expected Tuesday thru the end of the
week with VFR conditions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CAC