Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
856 FXPQ50 PGUM 011923 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 523 AM ChST Sun Jun 2 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Light to gentle trades prevail, with some showers observed forming right outside the eastern Saipan waters. Most recent altimetry passes indicate seas are 4 to 5 feet. && .Discussion... Introduced low-end scattered showers for the islands in the afternoon, as extensive heating and light winds will allow some island showers to form. Tonight, skies will remain mostly clear once again, before the Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell moves in closer to provide some chance of thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours Monday. && .Marine... Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected for much of the forecast period, before increasing slightly during the next weekend. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain along east facing reefs through tonight, before dropping to low thereafter. Rip current risk will remain low along all reefs through Wednesday. && .Eastern Micronesia including Chuuk... A general weakening of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has continued over the last 12 hours, leading to a decrease in convection across eastern Micronesia and Chuuk. This looks to persist through tonight into Monday before a series of trade-wind troughs move across the region. Models continue to show the next batch of trade- wind troughs evolving into the ITCZ, leading to an increase of convection across the region next week. Combined seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the region. Seas could build into the 5 to 7 ft range across the RMI early this week. Kalo Buoy in RMI shows combined seas mainly 3 to 5 feet. && .Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau... Some scattered showers will be possible for Yap through tonight as a trade-wind trough moves through the region today. Activity looks to decrease late tonight through Tuesday for Yap and Palau before another trough approaches the region late Tuesday night. Guidance is showing the extension of the ITCZ into western Micronesia near the middle of the week. This would support widespread convection near Yap and Palau. The ECMWF in particular favors this solution. For now, left the forecast same as previous, with scattered PoPs for this time period. Gentle to moderate trades and benign sea conditions are expected to continue across the region through the weekend. Palau/Ngaraard Buoy shows combined seas mainly 2 to 4 feet from the east. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Montvila Micronesia: Williams