837
FXUS61 KGYX 241409
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1009 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Less humid air moves in today with mostly dry weather into
Saturday. A frontal system brings chances for showers late
Saturday into Sunday. A more organized system approaches for
early next week bringing better chances for widespread showers
Monday night into Tuesday. An upper level trough crosses the
region Wednesday into Thursday with more scattered showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1005 AM Update...Minor tweaks to sky and PoPs based on
satellite/radar, but this applies mainly to northern areas to
capture the shower activity just upstream. Max temps have also
been increased by a couple degrees across southern areas with
hourlies running a little warmer. This applies to the coast as
well with winds probably being breezy enough to prevent the
seabreeze or at least hold it off longer.

640 AM...Not much to update this morning, just temps, which did
some areas decouple overnight, but should this should not affect
maxes as they will come up quickly under full sun and with some
mixing starting soon. Otherwise, mainly sunny and a little
breezy.

Previously...Upper level trough axis swings W-E across the CWA,
along with secondary sfc cold front, and its fairly well lined
up from the sfc to m500 MB, with a little low level jet just
ahead of the trough axis. This will lead to a breezy day across
the CWA. Mixing is fairly deep with winds from the W, and will
likely see gusts around 25 mph, with a few maybe around 30 mph.
The wind direction is good downslope and 925-850 MB temps still
on the warmer ahead of the front, which wont cross the CWA S of
the mtns until afternoon, so maxes will be warm again generally
into the low 80s S of the mtns bu mostly 70-75 in the mtns
where the front will cross earlier. Tds will be in the 40s to
low 50s, so much drier air than the last few days. Could see a
few light showers in the ME mtns around midday, but otherwise
maybe a few clouds around the front as it crosses this afternoon
than the mostly sunny skies through much of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The breezy conds will subside with sunset, but there will be
enough NW flow to prevent most places, but the most sheltered
areas from decoupling, so rad cooling will not be a factor.
However, air mass is cool and lows will range from 40-45 in thee
mtns to 50-55 in srn NH and the ME coast. Saturday looks
generally sunny and dry as weak high pressure builds in. It
won;t be quite as warm as Friday, but still warm with highs
ranging from around 70 in the N, to the mid to upper 70s in the
S. May see a few more clouds moving in late in the day, but most
of those clouds will come in after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A significant transition of the trends in the synoptic regimes
and therefore the long range portion of the forecast begins this
weekend. For the overview, a trend towards cooler with more
showers expected as we head into next week.

A very weak trough will cross the region Saturday night into
Sunday bringing a few scattered showers into the region. Any
precipitation will be light and brief in duration. Latest models
and ensemble solutions suggest the most breaks in the cloud
cover will be over southern New Hampshire where temperatures
may top out in the lower 80s. Much cooler conditions are
expected over eastern portions of our forecast area.

On Monday, a large scale upper level and surface low will cross
the Great Lakes. This in term will allow for an increasing south
to southeasterly gradient to develop over the forecast area in a
warm air advection pattern. Increasing moisture will allow for
scattered showers to become more widespread Monday night into
Tuesday. It will remain on the seasonably cool side with
temperatures mainly in the 60s. Seasonably cool and showers
conditions will close out the middle to the end of the week next
week with as a significant cold pool rotates over our region.
The cold air aloft may allow for a snow shower or two to mix in
over the top of Mount Washington by the end of the week as we
approach and enter June.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR expected through Sat night. KRKD may
see on and off again fog through sunrise, but should clear out
quickly. Expectorating a few W wind gusts to around 25 kts
today, especially this afternoon.

Long Term...Showers will arrive Saturday night and into Sunday
with a higher potential for more widespread rainfall and flight
restrictions early next week. An upper level trough will bring a
few more scattered showers during the midweek period with
pockets of IFR conditions at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low level jet will move across the waters this
afternoon ahead of a cold front. Sustain winds of 15-20 kts will
be possible. But mixing looks limited given the thermal profile.
Will hold off on SCA, but could see a few gusts to 25 kt outside
the bays. Otherwise, winds diminish tonight, with conds
remaining below SCA levels into Sat night.

Long Term...A northwest flow Saturday night will switch to out
of the south on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday.
The gradient flow and winds will increase out of the southeast
on Tuesday into SCA conditions.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ023>028.
NH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cempa/Combs
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Cannon/Cempa