849
FXUS61 KGYX 020123
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
923 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead through Sunday with temperatures
remaining above seasonal norms and winds diminishing. High
pressure will remain overhead early next week...with an
increasing marine influence causing temperatures to fall closer
to normal for early June. The next chance for widespread
rainfall does not arrive until the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
0125Z Update...
Minor edits to the ongoing forecast which continues with dry and
mostly clear conditions across the region. Expect mainly some
high level cloudiness fromm time to time across the Northeast
tonight. Low dew points will allow for another chilly night
across much of the region with min temperatures in the 30s in
the northern mountains.

Update...Very well defined sea breeze continues to progress to
the west through interior southern Maine and New Hampshire per
latest radar trends. Some Cu remains just west of this boundary
as well.

The sea breeze will dissipate after sunset leaving the forecast
area once again under mainly clear skies and light winds. With
low surface dew points remaining in place, temperatures will
fall rather quickly during the overnight hours, bottoming out
in the 30s across the north with mainly 40s elsewhere.

Prev Disc...
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern: A northerly gradient continues through tonight as mid level
ridge axis builds into western New England while a cutoff low sinks
south through the Canadian maritimes.  This will continue the
persistent...dry...northerly flow aloft that has been entrenched
over the area for the past few days with little in the way of
weather concerns for the overnight.

Through this Evening: Few/Sct clouds over western ME will diminish
with the loss of daytime heating while some thin cirrus arriving
from the west will allow for a nice sunset. With more of an easterly
push this evening...expect 8pm temps to fall into the 50s and lower
60s across ME with temps in NH remaining in the upper 60s to around
70.

Tonight: Llevel gradient will be less than on previous nights
despite ongoing northerly flow in the mid and upper levels given the
arriving surface high pressure ridge axis.  A dry airmass will
preclude any lower cloudiness...with just a few high clouds spilling
over the mid level ridge as shown in the HREF.  Thus...pretty much
ideal radiational cooling conditions and see little reason to stray
from the trend of going a bit below the cool end of the statistical
guidance which brings the coldest locations to around 40 tonight
with most spots falling into the middle 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern: Northern New England will find itself in somewhat of a col
position during the short term as the arriving mid level ridge
weakens and we find ourselves between a large troughing towards
James bay and a cutoff sitting south of Nova Scotia.  Weak surface
ridging will be the result with northerly flow in the mid and upper
levels continuing...though weaker than in days previous.
Therefore little in the way of sensible wind impacts are
expected through the short term forecast period with our focus
being largely on temperatures.

Sunday:  Quiet weather continues on Sunday with a weak high pressure
ridge axis overhead.  A few cirrus along with a few flat cu /esp
east/ are expected but with lighter winds than on Friday-Saturday.
This will likely be the warmest day of the stretch away from the
coast with T8s pushing above 13C across NH and far western
ME...dropping a few degrees as you move to the Capitol region and
Midcoast.  This is roughly 2-3C warmer than on Saturday which should
allow highs to push in the the upper 70s to mid 80s from north to
south.  The exception will be at the coast...where a more robust
seabreeze is expected given little in the way of a surface
gradient...with readings reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s here.

Sunday Night: Outside of some high cloudiness...a mostly clear and
calm might is expected.  Dewpoints will be higher than on Saturday
night...which will yield lows another step higher than previous
nights...likely reaching the upper 40s in the coolest northern
valleys...but 50s elsewhere.

Conditions will again likely support a beach hazard statement
on Sunday for warm air temperatures and cold water temperatures
though a slackening gradient will allow for a bigger sea breeze
push on Sunday than on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term to what has been advertised
the past few days. An upper level ridge to our west will shield the
area from any significant precipitation through late next week
before a cold front and an upper level low push east by next
weekend.

In the dailies:  On Monday a weak warm front will try to lift north
with a disturbance moving along it. This feature will pass to
the of the region early Monday. Meanwhile low pressure east of
Nova Scotia will pivot a trough around it. This will halt the
northward movement of the warm front and by Tuesday result in a
more NE flow. What this means is that Monday will likely be the
warmest day of the week with above normal temperatures. The NE
flow on Tuesday will cool temperatures some, especially along
coastal areas as well as the higher elevations of the interior.
Wednesday into Thursday the upper level ridge will move over the
area. This will continue mainly dry weather with seasonable
temperatures. Thursday Afternoon through Friday the ridge moves
east of the area at which point scattered showers will start to
develop...mainly over NH at first then moving east into Maine.
By Saturday the cutoff low that has been slowly drifting east
from southern Canada will get close enough to place the region
under a cyclonic flow aloft which should enhance the shower
potential as we head into next weekend.

Included patchy marine fog along the midcoast Monday Night and
Tuesday Night. Added patchy fog over land late each night
Wednesday Night through Friday Night as the airmass moistens and
showers start to develop.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...

Summary: High pressure building overhead today will remain across
the region through Sunday night with mostly clear skies and
northwest winds /sea breezes at the coast/ weakening through Sunday.

Restrictions:  VFR conditions are expected to dominate the period
through Sunday night.

Winds: Northwesterly winds 10G15kts inland with sea breezes along
the coast with winds going calm/light-variable tonight. West-
southwest winds 5-10kts for the day on Sunday with sea-breezes
again developing at all coastal terminals.

LLWS: LLWS is note expected through Sunday night.

Lightning: Lightning is not expected through Sunday night.


Long Term...

Generally Expect VFR to MVFR throughout the period. Areas of
IFR possible beyond the long term aviation portion of the
forecast as we head into Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and waves remain below SCA levels through
Sunday night as high pressure builds towards the waters today
and remains over the waters Sunday and Sunday night. Onshore
southerly flow is expected each afternoon with the development
of the seabreeze...with winds turning weakly offshore overnight.

Long Term...Wind and waves to remain below SCA conditions
through the extended forecast period. Patchy fog mainly at night
starting Monday Night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Cannon/Lulofs