709
FXUS61 KGYX 011655 AAB
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1255 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will settle off the east coast
bringing and extended stretch of dry weather to the region with
temperatures gradually warming through the weekend. Cooling
seabreezes will form on the coast today through at least
Monday. The first half of next week is expected to continue the
dry and mild stretch with unsettled weather possibly to return
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM Update...Other than matching near term
temperature/dewpoint/cloud cover (or lack thereof!)
trends...little changes to the forecast this morning as 12Z GYX
RAOB shows deep residual layer that we/re mixing back into with
temperatures quickly moving into the 70s across the south.
Rather dry in the sounding as well...with CU rule suggesting
very little in the way of flat cu development...mainly over
western Maine for the day today. No other changes at this time.

6 AM Update...No changes to the going forecast. We are on track
for a beautiful morning weatherwise.

Previously...

High pressure gradually builds overhead this weekend while weak
low pressure continues to spin over the Maritimes. This will
continue to the northerly or northwesterly flow regime with warm
temperatures with wind gusts 15 to 20 MPH. A late day seabreeze
is expected on the coast which will make it feel quite
chilly/cold there by 00z this evening. Otherwise, dry weather is
expected under mostly sunny skies.

Beach hazard statement continues for sunny/mild/breezy
conditions with ocean temperatures still in the 50s. Fully
expect these headlines will be necessary through the weekend
given continued dry and mild conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
No changes with the forecast for tonight. Mostly clear skies
expected with deep layer ridging moving overhead. Went with a
blend of MOS products for lows tonight as radiational cooling
will likely be quite good, especially across northern NH.
However, the air mass has modified enough that frost
development should not occur.

Another fair and warm day expected on Sunday with highs around
80 except on the immediate coast where a seabreeze will likely
form and make it chilly by late in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A rather quiet weather pattern continues in the long term. An
upper level ridge will shield the area from any significant
precipitation through most of next week.

In the dailies: An area of mid and upper level clouds may cross
the area Monday with spot showers possible in the north. Behind
this the east coast ridge builds back north and should dominate
the weather through midweek. Can`t rule out some scattered
diurnal shower activity mainly over the mountains and foothills
but most of the time conditions should remain dry. A cutoff low
over southern Canada just north of the Great Lakes will have a
hard time making eastward progress. A cold front pivoting around
this system will approach Thursday and Friday increasing the
chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. The GFS is
more aggressive than the ECMWF with this frontal feature. Given
that we are in a rather blocky pattern, would favor a littler
slower progression with this system so will go under GFS POPS
and trend a little closer the the ECMWF. Have added patchy
marine fog each night Monday Night through Wednesday Night.

Temperatures will be on the warm side reaching somewhat above normal
values ranging from the upper 70`s to mid 80`s Monday and mid
70`s to low 80`s Tuesday through Friday. Expect afternoon
seabreezes to cool the immediate coastal areas and islands. Low
temperatures will generally be in 50`s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...

Summary: High pressure building overhead today will remain across
the region through Sunday night with mostly clear skies and
northwest winds /sea breezes at the coast/ weakening through Sunday.

Restrictions:  VFR conditions are expected to dominate the period
through Sunday night.

Winds: Northwesterly winds 10G15kts inland with sea breezes along
the coast with winds going calm/light-variable tonight. West-
southwest winds 5-10kts for the day on Sunday with sea-breezes
again developing at all coastal terminals.

LLWS: LLWS is note expected through Sunday night.

Lightning: Lightning is not expected through Sunday night.

Long Term...

Generally Expect VFR to MVFR throughout the Monday-Wed period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...With high pressure west of the region
northwesterly winds of 10-15kts are expected to continue through
the period with nearshore gusts 20kts at times. Winds will go
onshore this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as a seabreeze
develops each day.

Long Term...Wind and waves to remain below SCA conditions
through the extended forecast period. Patchy fog mainly at night
starting Monday Night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ023>028.
NH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Arnott