067
FXUS64 KHGX 270500
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...Heat Advisory in Effect Until 10 PM CDT Monday...

A heat advisory remains in place through at least tomorrow
evening, as our hot holiday weekend continues. Tomorrow appears to
be the last day of peak heat in this stretch, but temperatures
will only gradually back their way down to more seasonable levels
through the week. Regardless of the exact numbers on the board,
heat safety will be a front-of-mind concern through Memorial Day,
and will have to be considered to some extent for the rest of the
summer, unless someone wants to host an all-summer, walk-in
freezer party. Someone? Anyone? Please?

If heading to the Gulf is your solution to beat the heat, great!
But also please think about dangerous water conditions thanks to
persistent onshore winds, pushing tidal levels above expected
astronomical tides and creating high rip current risk. Rip
currents this weekend are strong enough that it has already caused
tragedy, and we hope that it will not cause any more.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Tranquil weather conditions can be expected tonight with light south
to southeasterly winds. It will be warm and muggy for the overnight
to early morning hours as the lows only make it into the mid to
upper 70s inland and the dewpoints remain just a few degrees lower.
Some areas of patchy fog is possible over portions of Southeast
Texas.

Overcast skies will redevelop overnight and gradually lift and
scatter out during morning hours. As the day progresses, an increase
in heat related impacts is expected as highs rise into the mid to
upper 90s and heat indices peak near 109-113 for much of the inland
portions of Southeast TX. A Heat Advisory will continue in effect
until 10 PM Monday for all of Southeast Texas. It is important you
take the necessary precautions and/or make the proper preparations
if you plan to work or spend time outdoors. Remember to practice
heat safety and stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the
hottest part of the day, move activities indoors if necessary, and
never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Remember, if it
is too hot for the palm of your hand, then the ground is too hot for
your pets` paws.

With respect to rain chances, the morning hours should remain
tranquil if the cap holds in place. There will be a few upper level
disturbances embedded in the quasi-zonal flow passing though during
the day if the cap weakens, it could be enough to trigger a few
isolated showers and/or thunderstorms later in the afternoon or
evening. There is also the chance for storms firing up over Central
Texas during the afternoon along a dryline/cold front and could move
south southeast and into the northern and western counties. Some of
these storms could become strong to severe, capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds. Although conditions do not look as
favorable for tornadoes, a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out. Based on the latest SPC Convective Outlook, all of Southeast
Texas, except the coastal locations, is currently under a Marginal
Risk (risk level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms.

Benign and warm conditions will prevail Monday night into early
Tuesday morning with light southeasterly winds and lows in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

One main feature of the long term is that temperatures gradually
work their way down to seasonable...ish through the week. Ensemble
mean 850 temps stay above the 90th percentile through Tuesday
afternoon, but slip below that for the rest of the week. A weak,
backdoor "cold" front drifts in from the northeast as well, but
that`s probably not going to provide a whole lot of relief. 500 mb
heights remain above average as a mid-level trough builds to the
west. This will put us in a northwest flow pattern aloft, while
winds wobble between easterly and southeasterly for the mid-week.

This northwest flow pattern also brings us to the other main
feature of the long term pattern, and that is the end of this
prolonged stretch of largely fair weather, and an increase in the
potential for showers and storms to develop - mainly initiating to
our northwest in the afternoon, and making their way into the area
in the evening. This setup tends to be *highly* conditional with
its threat for stronger to severe storms. The summery conditions
mean we will have plenty of instability to tap into with the peak
heating of the day, however we are also likely to be in an
otherwise less favorable environment compared to where daily
storms get started. As a result, we will surely have a day or two
where all the storms die before reaching our area, leaving a nice,
warm evening for us all. But other days, isolated to scattered
storms will be able move into Southeast Texas, and though they
will weaken as they push through the area, we could still see
a couple strong to severe storms before they die out. Of course,
folks in the far northern/northwestern part of our area will see
the highest risk for storms, closer to where the day`s activity
initiates. Closer to the coast, the threat will diminish.

Another thing we`ll need to consider is the timing of quick,
shortwave troughs shooting through the broader upper pattern.
Should they line up well with the diurnal pattern there will be
enhancement of that particular day`s storms, thanks to the
differential vorticity advection helping support vertical motion.
Unfortunately, trying to predict something so transient at long
range is just asking to look dumb. So I take the conservative
approach of splattering some sort of PoPs all over the long term,
but generally peaking in the afternoon/early evening with the
diurnal pattern. As we go through the week and predictability of
these smaller disturbances increases, we`ll be able to refine
things more.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

We will continue to transition over to mostly MVFR ceilings through
the overnight hours across the area as mostly light S/SE winds pre-
vail. These lower CIGS will be slow to clear Mon morning especially
closer to the coast. Further inland, a weakening cap and additional
disturbances moving in from the west could produce scattered storms
over our W/NW counties tomorrow afternoon/evening. Near-term models
appear to be keeping with this trend of increasing POPs...but still
going to keep the mention of precipitation out at this time. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Moderate south winds and 4 to 6 foot seas are expected through
tonight. Conditions are such that small craft will want to
exercise caution through at least this evening. Winds and seas
decrease somewhat on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a slight dip
in wave heights. During the second half of the week, moderate to
occasionally strong southeast winds and 4 to 6 foot seas resume
with a long fetch setting up across the Gulf. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible by Wednesday and
Thursday.

At the shores, beach hazard statements remain in place for tidal
levels above astronomical norms, and

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  96  75  93 /  10  10  20  20
Houston (IAH)  79  97  77  93 /   0  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  90  79  87 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179-195-
     196-198-200-214-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for TXZ197-199-
     210>213-226-227.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Luchs