Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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435 FXUS64 KHGX 240852 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 352 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather exists across NW/W counties today. A dryline will move into Central Texas during the day today, and with embedded disturbances in the mid-upper level flow, storms that form in Central TX could make their way into the aforementioned area later this afternoon into tonight. Best chances for storms remain on the lower end (~20%), and will largely depend on if the storms can maintain longevity and overcome the cap. With CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, shear values around 50 kts, storms that make it into the area and overcome the cap would be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. Aside from the storm potential, the main headline for today continues to be the heat risk across SE Texas. Highs for today will be in the 90s inland and in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Persistent onshore flow will continue to funnel moisture into the area. The combination of heat and humidity will result in heat index values of 100-107F across much of SE Texas. Please exercise heat safety by staying hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and look before you lock! Remember that if the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, it is too hot for your pets` paws. Lows for tonight will be in the 70s area wide with muggy conditions. Saturday will feature another day of hot and humid conditions with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and dew point values in the mid to upper 70s. Heat index values for Saturday will once be in the triple digits area wide (100-108F). In addition to the heat risk, coastal hazards will also exist today and into the weekend, including a high risk for rip currents, above normal water levels, and above normal surf. If at the beach, swim near a lifeguard and away from rocks, jetties and piers. In addition, don`t swim at the eastern or western tips of Galveston Island. Tidal currents and rip currents are always dangerous there. If caught in a rip current, do not panic and swim parallel to the shore. Adams && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Slightly higher heights and warmer H85 temps will bring the hottest temps we should see in the 7 day period Sunday and Monday. Looking for highs in the mid 90s with overnight lows only in the 77-82F range for most locations. Despite southerly winds in the 10-20mph range, moist ground and elevated dewpoints will keep things plenty uncomfortable this holiday weekend. Heat index values will probably top out in the 105-110F range. Chances of shra/tstms are quite slim, but not zero for parts of the Brazos Valley & Piney Woods both days (with Monday late afternoon/evening possibly being the slightly better shot of the two). Weak frontal boundary slides southward and somewhat close to the region Monday night & Tues, but high pressure behind this boundary generally becomes positioned just to our east. What does this mean? We`ll probably see some recycled "drier" air backdoor into parts of the region and temps trending back a little closer to seasonable norms. But with decent moisture still available west of the surface ridging, we`d anticipate some isolated to scattered tsra to return to the forecast each day for the remainder of the work week. Most should be diurnally driven, but we`ll also need to keep tabs in the nwly flow aloft for embedded disturbances that could provide a more organized trigger from time-to-time. Included somewhat low precip chances in the grids, but above NBM suggestions. Suspect POPs will need to be raised at times for some locations as time advances and we can better identify these things and trends become better established. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Late evening satellite is showing low clouds beginning to develop across the area. 06Z TAFs have MVFR ceilings developing over the next couple of hours with mainly S to SE winds around 8 to 13 knots. Mainly S winds will strengthen to close to 15 knots and become occasionally gusty during the day on Friday with MVFR ceilings becoming VFR by around 16Z-18Z. At this time, any late afternoon/evening storms should stay NW and N of the area, but we will need to watch the development and adjust the TAFs if needed. 42 && .MARINE... Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Moderate onshore flow will prevail through the Memorial Day weekend and well into next week. Seas will remain somewhat elevated...generally ranging between 4-6ft. Will maintain caution flags for all the waters today...and suspect it`ll need to be extended for intermittent periods through Monday. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 75 95 76 / 20 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 93 77 94 77 / 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 86 79 86 79 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for GMZ370-375. && $$