289
FXUS64 KHGX 020455
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Ongoing scattered convection across the northern half of the CWA will
die off by early evening. Will be canceling the remaining parts
of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch at the top of the hour.
Otherwise, looking quiet overnight with some isolated pockets of
fog.

Heading into mid morning Sunday, we`ll see some daytime heating
and a seabreeze begin initiating. This combined with remnants of
an elongated piece of vorticity (now in NW approaching W Tx)
should be enough to initiate some daytime shra/tstms. Like today,
dynamics not looking too impressive for long lived severe wx, but
cannot rule out a couple of isolated strong-severe cells and
locally heavy downpours. Better shot of this occurring across the
ene half of the CWA. This activity should also die off toward the
evening. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The main concern through the long term will be the return of the
heat. A long fetch of southerly flow at the surface driven by a
surface high pressure in the SE CONUS will help drive the
temperatures and dew points up. High temperatures will be in the low
to mid 90s Tuesday through next weekend with afternoon heat indices
rising to near 100 to 107 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 70s for most inland locations with areas along the
immediate coast not dropping below 80 degrees. Also because of the
higher dew points along the coast, overnight heat indices may not
drop below 90 degrees.

Rain chances through the upcoming week will be fairly low. The
chances are slightly higher Tuesday and Wednesday as we get some
weak disturbances sliding overhead combined with daytime heating,
but even then not looking like anything impressive as of right now.
Those low rain chances drop even lower as we head towards the end of
the week as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the late morning through afternoon hours today. Gusty winds
and heavy downpours will be possible near the stronger storms.
Moderate onshore flow will continue through the next several days
with winds around 15kt with occasionally higher gusts and seas
building to 4 to 6ft. Small craft will need to exercise caution at
times, and conditions will be borderline Small Craft Advisory Monday
and Tuesday. The onshore flow will persist into the second half of
the week, but is expected to decrease to around 5-10kt. Rain chances
will also gradually diminish through the week. The persistent
onshore flow may also lead to a high risk of strong rip currents.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

This cycle trends more pessimistic as sub-BKN decks at IFR levels
are already beginning to crop up, and CIGs seem to be running 3-6
hours ahead of previous cycle`s expectations. Now anticipate IFR-
low MVFR conditions late tonight, but should still improve to VFR
towards mid-day as clouds lift and scatter. Also continue to
expect another daily round of showers and storms, with the initial
focus on the seabreeze.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  90  76  91 /  10  30  20  20
Houston (IAH)  75  90  77  91 /  80  40  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  87  81  87 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Fowler