381
FXUS64 KHGX 301050
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Another day, another shortwave...the pattern of active weather
continue today and Friday with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms expected. Expect a similar setup to yesterday with
scattered convection in the afternoon, mainly associated with
diurnal heating and the sea breeze. We remain under an unstable
tropical airmass, so storms will once again have the potential to
reach severe criteria today. Main hazards will be wind and hail. SPC
does have the majority of the area in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk
for severe weather today.

Later in the day an MCS is expected to develop out towards New
Mexico and the Panhandle, and will make an eastward progression
during the overnight hours. 500mb quasi-zonal flow over the western
half of the state will become NW flow over SE Texas, allowing the
MCS structure to go from an eastward progression to a SE progression
through our CWA Friday morning.

Clarity on the timing and intensity has been difficult to come
by...the evolution of this system will likely be dependent on
mesoscale features that Hi-res models have yet to catch onto...When
the MCS reaches our CWA Friday morning, we will still be in an
unstable environment, and as it pushes through there will be the
potential for damaging winds and hail. Ahead of the MCS we may see a
few showers and thunderstorms pop up. With the MCS pushing through
in the morning, there may be time for the atmosphere to rebound with
diurnal heating. This could allow for redevelopment later in the day
behind the initial MCS.

Daytime temperatures will continue to be in the 80s to near 90 area
wide through the short-term period. Nighttime lows will cool into
the 70s to near 80.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The parade of shortwaves continue into the start of June. The first
shortwave within the long term will be moving through Saturday
morning/afternoon bringing showers and thunderstorms to much of the
region - though likely better coverage north of I-10. PWATs remain
fairly high, around 1.8 to 2.2", so any strong storm the develops
may produce locally heavy rainfall. WPC has placed most of SE Texas
in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on
Saturday. SPC has also placed areas generally north of I-10 in a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms on Saturday.
Like the previous few events, *if* these severe storms materialize,
then they may produce strong winds and hail. Another disturbance
will quickly follow suit, moving through the SE Texas Sunday
morning/afternoon bringing us another round of showers and
thunderstorms.

Upper-level ridging does begin to build Monday into Tuesday over
south Texas pushing the passing shortwaves further north towards the
RRV. Still depending on the strength of this ridge, portions of the
Piney Woods region may still get the occasionally shower or
thunderstorm through midweek next week.

The start of climatological Summer (June-July-August) will be
starting out near to slightly below normal with high temperatures
over the weekend expected to be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
The overnight lows will not be near normal, but well above normal
with minimum temperatures expected in the mid to upper 70s (and even
low 80s for along the immediate coast). The ridging that begins to
build in next week will cause temperatures to creep up with high
temperatures in the low 90s on Monday, and then low to mid 90s by
Wednesday. High moisture will stick around thanks to southerly flow
at the surface, so heat indices near 100 to 105 degrees will return
next week.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Several sites at MVFR, IFR CIGs ongoing at CLL. Expect CIGs to
lift to VFR and scatter out this afternoon. VCSH possible this
morning with a few streamer showers. Scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon with gusts to 20 kts possible through the afternoon
hours. Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to move
through overnight into morning hours Friday. A few lingering
showers/storms possible through Friday afternoon. Storms could
produce large hail and damaging winds. MVFR CIGs return overnight
into Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through the
middle of next week with seas around 3 to 5ft. Small craft may need to
exercise caution at times, especially during the overnight hours as
wind gusts to near 20kt. There will be continued chances for showers
and thunderstorms through the weekend. Some storms may become strong
to severe producing locally gusty winds and elevated seas. The
persistent onshore flow will also lead to a high risk of strong rip
currents through the weekend.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  87  74  86  72 /  40  30  70  40
Houston (IAH)  87  76  88  75 /  50  20  60  40
Galveston (GLS)  85  80  85  79 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler