851
FXUS64 KHGX 022341
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Activity has begun to develop over our north/northeastern CWA this
afternoon, but coverage, so far, has been limited. But will likely
maintain scattered POPs for these areas through the evening hours,
as daytime heating persists. Showers/storms should decrease by to-
night with the passage of the short wave and loss of heating, with
the best rain chances moving N/NE of the CWA. So for SE TX, mostly
cloudy skies should prevail with warm/quiet/humid weather in place
for the rest of the overnight period. Lows will range from the mid
to upper 70s for most areas, near 80 along the immediate coast.

Mon is expected to be another warm/humid day with highs generally in
the lower 90s...upper 80s at the beaches. Rain chances will continue
to be tricky as much of the guidance is still having issues with the
timing of the next MCS from the west. Current runs are pointing to a
late Mon night passage across Central TX to the east. This still has
the best/highest POPs for areas going further north into our CWA. Of
note, SPC`s Day 2 Outlook does include the northern parts of Houston
county in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)...with a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for locations generally north of a line from Caldwell-Conroe-
Cleveland. Otherwise, lows to range from the mid to upper 70s across
much of the area, around 80 along the immediate coast once again. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

As a more swly flow aloft takes shape and H85 and H7 temps climb,
look for warmer weather and lower chances of rainfall across the
region for a good part of the week. Though rain chances aren`t
exactly nil, they should be getting to the point of mostly not
mentioning as subsidence/capping takes shape.

Mid/upper ridge expands northward from Mexico into the Rockies
and West Texas heading into the second part of the week. Troffing
to our east and a northerly flow aloft may allow a backdoor front
to get closer to the area Friday-ish with some 2"+ PW`s possibly
pooling ahead of it. How close it gets, or what capping and temp
profile aloft looks like, remains to be seen. But that might be
the next timeframe to look at in regards to the potential return
of mentionable rain chances. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Primary concern is at UTS, with storms north and east of the
field, about 10 miles out. Anticipate they will not get any
closer, but could toss some outflow, causing more erratic winds
until they fade off over the next two or so hours. Otherwise,
should see gusty winds settle down some. If they go more slack
than expected, could see patchy fog crop up, but for now expecting
them to stay up enough that we instead see MVFR CIGs, though
there are some hints that high IFR might also try to show up. Have
some FEWs in the TAFs in a nod to that, and for making amendments
easier if necessary.

Finally, continuing the AMD NOT SKED at GLS, as comms between the
office and the ASOS remain down. Will still attempt to make
amendments as needed and possible from available sources of
information.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing southerly
winds and building seas into midweek. Risks for rip currents along
area beaches will be rising as well. Winds and seas should begin
diminishing as we head into the second part of the work week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances, though not zero, should be lower
than we have seen the previous several days.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  92  77  95 /  10  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)  77  91  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  81  87  81  88 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Adams