571
FXUS64 KHGX 231751
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Strong, broad ridging extending from the Eastern Pacific-Mexico-
Western Gulf of Mexico will hold tough. Mainly zonal/westerly flow
on its northern periphery (locally) with subtle disturbances passing
through from time-to-time. H85 temps 20-22C and H7 temps 10-14C will
put a damper on rain chances for most of us today & Friday.
Exception could be our northernmost counties in the Brazos Valley
and Piney Woods where conditions won`t be quite as hostile. Global
and hires guidance indicates opportunities for some isolated to
scattered convection. First chance possibly today in association
with a subtle impulse(s), differential heating, and maybe any
remnant outflows left over from yesterday evening`s storms. Second
chance might come late Friday afternoon or evening where several
models indicate a cluster of convection initiating on parts of the
dryline in nctl Tx. Can`t rule out the possibility of a few strong-
severe cells, but looks like areas just north of the CWA would see
the better possibilities at the moment.

Otherwise, continued summerlike conditions prevailing into the end
of the work week with daytime highs in the lower 90s and overnight
lows 75-81. Winds in the 10-20mph range should at least provide a
touch of relief during the day.  47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Well you can`t spell Houston without "hot" and that`s going to be
buzzword throughout the holiday weekend (especially Memorial Day).
To help you prepare for these hot temperatures, I challenge you to
get hydrated by taking a sip of WATER every time you see words that
include hot or heat (including the two in the first two sentences).
An upper level high will continue to sit over northern Mexico
through the weekend leading to persistent ridging, so nothing but
hot and dry conditions are in store for us through late Monday. On
Saturday, we`ll still have a lingering frontal boundary to our west
with the surface low centered in the Central Plains. With Southeast
Texas in the warm sector of this surface low, we`ll have enhanced
low-level moisture transport leading to increased humidity. When you
combine that with the increasingly southwesterly flow at 850mb
leading to 850mb temperatures near their MAX percentiles
(NAEFS/GEFS), and we have our first (mini) heatwave of the year.
Interestingly, this is occuring before both meteorological and
astronomical summer...neat! The average first day of 95+F
temperatures for the City of Houston is June 13th, and if the
forecast holds then we`re going to reach that about two weeks ahead
of the average. Suffice to say, this round of heat is unseasonably
early.

High temperatures on Saturday will be in the low 90s with heat index
values in the 101-106F range. We turn up the heat a bit higher for
Sunday with most inland locations topping out in the mid 90s for air
temperature with heat index values in the 102-110F range. Keep in
mind that our criteria for a Heat Advisory is heat index values at
or above 108F, so Sunday will likely feature our first one of the
year. We`ll likely follow that up with another Heat Advisory on
Memorial Day/Monday, which still looks to be the hottest day of the
forecast period with air temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and
heat index values in the 103-111F range. Don`t expect much of any
relief during the overnight hours as it`s going to be warm and muggy
with low temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80F.

Now let`s talk about HeatRisk. Saturday through Monday most of
Southeast Texas is outlined in a "Major" risk (level 3 out of 4),
which means that this level of heat affects anyone without effective
cooling and/or adequate hydration. This is occuring on a holiday
weekend and we know that many of you have outdoor plans, so PLEASE
be sure to practice heat safety to protect yourselves and your loved
ones. Drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks from the sun,
avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the
day, wear loose/lightweight clothing, know the signs of heat
stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you
lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws. Don`t forget the sunscreen too!

Rain chances return on Monday night as a frontal boundary pushes
into Southeast Texas. The best chance of seeing showers/storms will
be north of I-10...oh and don`t get too excited about that front.
While temperatures do look slightly cooler, we`re only looking at
dropping back into the low 90s. That`s certainly better than the
upper 90s though, and we`ll have the added bonus of dew points in
the 60s again. Rain chances beyond Monday night are still uncertain
with another ridge building in. There is some potential for embedded
shortwaves to push through the area, but if that`ll be enough to
overcome the subsidence remains to be seen. I was on the long term
forecast desk yesterday as well and between yesterday and
today...the rain chances have decreased for early next week (not
counting Monday night).

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

There`s quite a bit of blow-off cloud cover from the storms just to
the north of the CWA continuing to move over parts of our area this
afternoon. Otherwise, not a lot of changes with the ongoing persist-
ence forecast of mostly MVFR (some IFR) ceilings overnight/into the
mid morning...to mostly VFR during the afternoon/evening hours with
this package. Models are hinting at another round of storms for the
NW/W portions of the CWA for late tomorrow afternoon, but not confi-
dent enough to include the mention of precipitation at this time.
41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Generally moderate onshore flow will persist into the weekend. Winds
and seas will periodically increase enough for caution flags. One
of those periods happens to be now through early Friday morning
with 15-20 knot winds and seas around 5-6 ft in the offshore
waters. The persistent onshore flow will bring an elevated risk
of rip currents into early next week.

Batiste

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers.
The Trinity River at Liberty will remain in major flood stage until
further notice. The Trinity River at Riverside is forecast to
continue on a downward trend from moderate flood stage into minor
flood stage early Thursday morning. Last up for the Trinity River is
Moss Bluff which remains in moderate flood stage and is expected to
continue on its steady recession through the end of the week.

Along the Brazos River, there are three gauges currently in minor
flood stage: Richmond, Rosharon, and Sugar Land. Richmond and Sugar
Land have already reached their crests and are forecast to gradually
trend downward...and Richmond is forecast to drop out of minor flood
stage on Thursday morning. Rosharon on the other hand is still
rising and is forecast to crest just below moderate flood stage on
Thursday. As always, we will continue to monitor observations
and trends.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  30
Houston (IAH)  91  78  93  79 /  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  80  87  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Batiste