058
FXUS66 KHNX 242043
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
143 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Strong, gusty west winds are expected in the Kern County
Desert and along the Mojave Desert Slopes this afternoon into
early Saturday morning. Then again Saturday afternoon through
Sunday morning.

2. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada
this afternoon into this evening.

3. A cooling trend is expected to continue through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The upper trough will continue to swing through central and
southern sections of California this afternoon and evening. The
primary impacts for the region are: Sierra`s at higher
elevations a few thunderstorms with the National Parks having a
10% to 15% probability of thunderstorms now through sunset. The
Kern County Desert and Mojave Slopes can expect this afternoon
through the overnight the west winds to increase into advisory
levels the probability of exceeding 45 mph for the Slopes is 70%
to near 100%. The probability of exceeding 60 mph, or warning
level wind gusts, is less than 15%. The San Joaquin Valley is
experiencing a slightly cooler afternoon than yesterday. The
trough passes through overnight putting Central California into
dry northwest flow aloft.

On Saturday the dry northwest flow continues for the region.
This will maintain the cooling trend over area. The threat of
thunderstorms ends for the Sierra. However, the Kern County
Desert and Mojave Desert Slopes wind issues are highly probable
to continue. This is caused by the thermal trough along the
Colorado River and strong high pressure over the Eastern
Pacific. That sets up a pressure gradient across the Sierra, for
example Bakersfield to Las Vegas gradient averages 6 to 8
millibars and that is very supportive of advisory level winds.
Saturday evening through early Sunday morning the PoE of 45 mph
ranges from 80% to near 100% for the Highway 58/Highway 14
section of the slopes and evening the PoE of 60 mph increases to
10% to 30% for the same time frame. At this time will remain
with the advisory and watch the trend on the probabilities for
further inspection and possible adjustments.

Sunday the upper flow remains dry for Central California with
upper heights beginning to rise a little for a slight uptick in
temperatures for all areas. Nothing significant however, is a
bright spot for the outdoor enthusiast venturing out to the
venues for the holiday weekend activities. On the Mojave Slopes
the gradient isn`t as tight as Friday and Saturday night,
reducing to 4 to 5 millibars, that the breeze will be there but
should hold back below advisory levels.

Monday through Thursday time frame for Central California the
forecast confidence with temperature and wind decreases with
each passing day. High confidence only the precipitation side,
since it is climatologically near zero chance this time of year,
that all the significant weather shall remain in the Pacific
Northwest. Breaking down the ensemble members individually shows
a swing in possible temperature solutions alone from one end of
10 to 15 degrees below normal to the other of 10 to 15 degrees
above normal a standard deviation of the order of six. The issue
is the upper low deterministically dropping into the Pacific
Northwest. The cluster analysis has the low in multiple
positions starting at day five through day nine. The further
south the low sinks the more likely Central California goes with
the below normal solution. The other side of the coin if the
upper low cuts across British Columbia and drops into the
Canadian Prairies a ridge builds and slides across the region
for significant warming. Then some solutions with onshore flow
for near normal temperatures and some waves through the flow
that could bring some Sierra thunderstorms and continued
Mojave/Kern County Desert wind issues. The range of
possibilities the best solution is to maintain the current
course in the forecast with slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Only a very low probability now through 03Z of some showers
and thunderstorms at the highest elevations of the Sierra.
Moderate wind continues for the Kern County Desert and Mojave
Slopes through 14Z.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  05/23/2024 15:01
EXPIRES: 05/24/2024 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ337>339.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...Proton
DSS....DAS

weather.gov/hanford