458
FXUS66 KHNX 212025
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
125 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Temperatures will climb to around 3 to 6 degrees above
normal by Wednesday followed by a cool down to slightly below
normal temperatures this weekend.

2. Winds will pick up in the Kern County mountains and deserts
Wednesday afternoon and evening and will continue to pick up
each afternoon and evening through Saturday due to multiple
trough passages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak upper ridge is currently nudging inland
into central CA which is providing for continued clear skies
along with recovering temperatures across much of our area as
most of the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills are running
2 to 4 DEG F above yday at this time. With the ridge progged to
nudge further inland tonight, additional warming is anticipated
on Wednesday. Here are latest NBM probabilities for a high
temperature of 90 degrees or higher on Wednesday afternoon for
selected locations in the San Joaquin Valley.

Merced        36%
Madera        36%
Fresno        61%
Reedley       21%
Lemoore       61%
Hanford       61%
Visalia       61%
Porterville   36%
Bakersfield   51%

Meanwhile, a large upper low pressure system is progged to drop
southward into the PAC NW from BC on Wednesday. This low will
drop slowly southeast toward the Great Basin region through
Thursday before another upper low follows it on Friday and
Saturday. While the moisture from these systems will remain well
to the north of our area, these systems will push a series of
troughs through central CA which will bring a cooling trend to
our area which will continue through Saturday with daytime highs
across our area expected to be 4 to 7 DEG F below normal on
Saturday. The other impacts from these trough passages will be
increased winds most noticably over the Kern County mountains
and deserts each afternoon and evening between Wednesday and
Saturday. There could also be enough instability and lift over
the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada from Fresno County
northward for isolated thunderstorms on Friday afternoon.

Medium range ensemble means are showing a flat ridge building
into the western CONUS Sunday through Tuesday which will bring
about continued dry conditions for our area with a dry westerly
flow aloft as well as another period of warming temepratures
with daytime highs expected to rise back to above normal levels
by early next week. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance is
indicating that most of the San Joaquin Valley has a 45 to 60
percent chance of reaching 90 DEG F or higher next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the Central
California interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

public/aviation/fire wx...DS
idss...Proton

weather.gov/hanford