Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
219 FXUS66 KHNX 280945 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 245 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and evening. 2. A warming trend will result in afternoon highs of 3 to 7 degrees above normal that will last through the week. 3. There is a moderate to high (50 to 90 percent) probability for temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees on Friday and Saturday in the San Joaquin Valley. 4. Gusty west winds are expected tonight through the weekend for the Mojave Desert Slopes and Kern County Desert. && .DISCUSSION... An upper level trough will continue to push the Pacific Northwest today with onshore flow for the Golden State. A weak wave does move through the flow this afternoon may fire up a thunderstorm over the Sierra Crests. The probability of thunder is 5% to 15% over the highest elevations of the National Parks. The other high impact item of business for tonight is the Mojave Slope winds. The short term ensembles paint a 80-100% chance of exceeding 45 mph from 8 PM through 8 AM for the typical areas of Highway 58 below Tehachapi Pass and Highway 14. The PoE of 60 mph is less than 15%. Will fly the wind advisory flag for the nighttime and early morning hours. Otherwise, the San Joaquin Valley focus of concern is temperatures. The PoE of 90*F ranges from 30-45% for Merced, Madera, and Reedley. Whereas the remainder of the SJV falls into the 70-85%. Moving up to PoE of 95*F the only noteworthy value is for Fresno at 16%. Wednesday the Pacific Northwest trough slides over to the Northern Rockies and weak flow continues over California. The probability of Sierra thunderstorms drops below 3%. The Mojave Slope wind gusts are back again with increasing probability of another wind advisory come Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Over in the SJV back to temperatures, on Wednesday, a little cut back is expected with PoE of 90*F falling to 16-41%. Thursday through Saturday more of the same with no threat of Sierra thunderstorms. Each evening and overnight poses a threat of Mojave Slope winds. The weak onshore flow will keep the above normal temperatures firmly in place of the SJV. Here is a table of PoE of 95*F for the period. THU FRI SAT Merced 36% 81% 46% Madera 36% 76% 51% Fresno 56% 86% 71% Reedley 21% 71% 51% Lemoore NAS 41% 81% 61% Hanford 41% 86% 61% Visalia 41% 86% 66% Porterville 26% 71% 56% Delano 36% 81% 61% Bakersfield 36% 81% 61% Sunday through next Tuesday the threat of Sierra thunderstorms remains below 10% at this time. Looking at the spread of ensemble members and cluster analysis tell the same story through the period of temperatures remaining in the 5-8 degree above seasonal normals for Central California. This is from a building ridge over the Rockies and Pacific upper lows staying above the 49th parallel. The 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day CPC outlooks continue the pattern of above normal temperatures for the region. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across central California over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/27/2024 13:35 EXPIRES: 05/28/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation/fire weather...Proton DSS....SM weather.gov/hanford