Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
225 FXUS66 KHNX 261953 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1253 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. There is a 25 to 35 percent chance for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada Monday afternoon and evening. 2. A warming trend will result in afternoon maximums 3 to 6 degrees above normal beginning Monday and lasting through the week. 3. There is a moderate (30 to 50 percent) probability for temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees Friday and Saturday in the San Joaquin Valley. 4. Gusty west winds are expected Tuesday through Friday over the Mojave Slopes and Kern County Desert. && .DISCUSSION... Marine layer deepened to around 3000 ft and helped keep high temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley below climatological normals yesterday. The layer has decreased to near 2000 ft this morning and under weak flat ridging aloft, our temperatures are trending upward. High temperatures this afternoon are on track to top out right around normal. Sunny skies prevail, with just some Cu popping over the Sierra during the afternoon. The warmup continues for Memorial Day, with around 50 to 70 percent probabilities for high temperatures of at least 90 degrees for most San Joaquin Valley locations. Weak shortwave energy tracking inland will also create enough instability to potentially trigger a few thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Monday afternoon and evening. National Blended Model probabilistic guidance for thunder is running around 25 to 35 percent for Monday. A low pressure trough is progged to swing inland mainly to our north by Tuesday, with lingering probabilities of thunder near the Sierra crest running around 10 to 15 percent. High temperatures Tuesday will be similar to Monday. generally around 3 to 6 degrees above normal. Just a degree or so of cooling is on tap for Wednesday as the trough continues to trek eastward. Expect increased gusty winds with the passing trough Tuesday and Wednesday. National Blended Model guidance shows around 20 to 40 percent probabilities for wind gusts of at least 45 mph along the Mojave Desert Slopes during the afternoons and evenings on Tuesday and Wednesday. Shorter range high resolution models will give better ideas on expected winds for these days as we get closer. A warming trend will ensue for the second half of the week under high pressure behind the departing trough. By Friday and Saturday, high temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal. San Joaquin Valley highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 90s, with a few triple digit highs in the desert zones. Probabilities for high temperatures of at least 95 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley on Friday are around 30 to 50 percent. Slight cooling begins next Sunday as a shortwave trough impacts the region. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across central California over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ JEB/BSO weather.gov/hanford