Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
164 FXUS66 KHNX 271029 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 329 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. There is a 15 to 25 percent chance for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada Monday afternoon and evening. 2. A warming trend will result in afternoon maximums 3 to 7 degrees above normal beginning Monday and lasting through the week. 3. There is a moderate (40 to 60 percent) probability for temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees Friday and Saturday in the San Joaquin Valley. 4. Gusty west winds are expected Tuesday through Friday for the Mojave Desert Slopes and Kern County Desert. && .DISCUSSION... A relatively weak upper level ridging pattern is building over central California this morning which will result in a warming trend across the region today and Tuesday. Maximum afternoon temperatures will be three to seven degrees warmer than average for this time of year in the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert. The following are probabilities for select locations to reach 90 degrees or higher this afternoon and tomorrow. Monday Fresno 71% Visalia 61% Bakersfield 56% Delano 56% Hanford 56% Lemoore 56% Porterville 46% Madera 41% Merced 31% Reedley 26% Tuesday Delano 76% Bakersfield 71% Fresno 71% Hanford 71% Lemoore 71% Visalia 71% Porterville 66% Madera 41% Reedley 41% Merced 26% While the ridge propagates aloft, winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are projected to be from the west to southwest this afternoon. Upsloping winds along the Sierra Nevada will result in moisture convergence along the crests and the opportunity for convective potential. National Blended Model guidance expresses a 15 to 25 percent chance for thunder in this area. Some stronger thunderstorms are possible, with the greatest threat being dangerous cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and wind gusts up to 45 miles per hour. The aforementioned upper level ridge is projected to break down late Tuesday into Wednesday as a trough begins to influence central California while it passes through the Pacific Northwest region. A slight cooldown will occur across our CWA as a result, however maximum temperatures Wednesday afternoon are projected to be one to three degrees above normal for this time of year. The trough will also bring around stronger wind gusts in the Kern County Desert and Mojave Desert Slopes on Wednesday as NBM ensemble guidance suggests a moderate (50 to 60 percent) probability for wind gusts 40 miles per hour or greater. Gusty conditions are projected to continue each afternoon in this area through the remainder of the week. As the weekend approaches, cluster analysis continues to point towards the development of another upper level ridge over the Pacific coast. As a result, temperatures over central California will warm above seasonal averages once again. Ensemble guidance from the National Blended Model expresses a 40 to 70 percent probability for temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley on both Friday and Saturday afternoon. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across central California over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/26/2024 13:01 EXPIRES: 05/27/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...SM IDSS..............BS weather.gov/hanford