Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
008 FXUS66 KHNX 210808 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 108 AM PDT Tue May 21 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Temperatures climb to slightly above normal by Wednesday before a cooldown to below normal this weekend. 2. Winds will pick up in the Kern County Desert Slopes beginning late Wednesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... The high winds have went down in the the Kern County Desert Slopes as a trough that brought temperatures back down to average for the San Joaquin Valley and gusty winds in Kern County is sliding away from our area. Latest model ensembles show a weak ridge building in today and tomorrow leading to a warm up to about 3 to 6 degrees above average. The warm up will be enough that the probabilistic models show a 30 to 55 percent chance of a high temperature of at least 90 degrees on Wednesday with Visalia, Fresno, and Delano having the highest probabilities. However, model ensembles are showing that another trough will slide into the Big Sky Country and part of the Great Basin on Thursday. This trough will lead to temperatures dropping beginning Thursday and will continue until becoming below average over the weekend. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance of a high temperature of 80 degrees or below on Saturday for the San Joaquin Valley with Merced and Madera having the highest probabilities at 49 and 44 percent respectively. This trough also will help increase the wind speeds in the Kern County Desert Slopes due to the cooler temperatures and sinking air affiliated with a cold front. A wind product may be issued for the winds later this week. A secondary trough will also slide into the same area which will help keep the cooling trend and high winds going. The cooling temperatures will also reduce the amount of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada as the overnight low temperatures at and above 8,000 feet will be close to freezing. Memorial Day looks to be the start of a change as model ensembles are showing a ridge starting to build back in late Sunday evening into Monday. Latest probabilities right now have a 20 to 35 percent chance of a high temperature of 90 degrees or higher on Memorial Day. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the Central California interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ JPK weather.gov/hanford