219
FXUS66 KHNX 280945
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
245 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms in the Sierra
Nevada this afternoon and evening.

2. A warming trend will result in afternoon highs of 3 to 7
degrees above normal that will last through the week.

3. There is a moderate to high (50 to 90 percent) probability
for temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees on Friday and
Saturday in the San Joaquin Valley.

4. Gusty west winds are expected tonight through the weekend
for the Mojave Desert Slopes and Kern County Desert.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough will continue to push the Pacific
Northwest today with onshore flow for the Golden State. A weak
wave does move through the flow this afternoon may fire up a
thunderstorm over the Sierra Crests. The probability of thunder
is 5% to 15% over the highest elevations of the National Parks.
The other high impact item of business for tonight is the Mojave
Slope winds. The short term ensembles paint a 80-100% chance of
exceeding 45 mph from 8 PM through 8 AM for the typical areas of
Highway 58 below Tehachapi Pass and Highway 14. The PoE of 60
mph is less than 15%. Will fly the wind advisory flag for the
nighttime and early morning hours. Otherwise, the San Joaquin
Valley focus of concern is temperatures. The PoE of 90*F ranges
from 30-45% for Merced, Madera, and Reedley. Whereas the
remainder of the SJV falls into the 70-85%. Moving up to PoE of
95*F the only noteworthy value is for Fresno at 16%.

Wednesday the Pacific Northwest trough slides over to the
Northern Rockies and weak flow continues over California. The
probability of Sierra thunderstorms drops below 3%. The Mojave
Slope wind gusts are back again with increasing probability of
another wind advisory come Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Over in the SJV back to temperatures, on Wednesday, a
little cut back is expected with PoE of 90*F falling to 16-41%.

Thursday through Saturday more of the same with no threat of
Sierra thunderstorms. Each evening and overnight poses a threat
of Mojave Slope winds. The weak onshore flow will keep the above
normal temperatures firmly in place of the SJV. Here is a table
of PoE of 95*F for the period.

                   THU        FRI      SAT
Merced             36%        81%      46%
Madera             36%        76%      51%
Fresno             56%        86%      71%
Reedley            21%        71%      51%
Lemoore NAS        41%        81%      61%
Hanford            41%        86%      61%
Visalia            41%        86%      66%
Porterville        26%        71%      56%
Delano             36%        81%      61%
Bakersfield        36%        81%      61%

Sunday through next Tuesday the threat of Sierra thunderstorms
remains below 10% at this time. Looking at the spread of
ensemble members and cluster analysis tell the same story
through the period of temperatures remaining in the 5-8 degree
above seasonal normals for Central California. This is from a
building ridge over the Rockies and Pacific upper lows staying
above the 49th parallel.

The 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day CPC outlooks continue the
pattern of above normal temperatures for the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across central California over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  05/27/2024 13:35
EXPIRES: 05/28/2024 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for
CAZ338.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...Proton
DSS....SM

weather.gov/hanford