Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
134 FXUS66 KHNX 261031 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 331 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Gusty west winds will continue in the Kern County desert and Mojave Desert Slopes early this morning, however winds have fallen below advisory criteria. 2. Near normal temperatures are expected for Sunday. A warming trend will result in afternoon maximums 3 to 5 degrees above normal beginning Monday and lasting through the week. 3. There is a moderate (30 to 60 percent) probability for temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees Friday and Saturday in the San Joaquin Valley. 4. Gusty west winds are expected Wednesday through Friday over the Mojave Slopes and Kern County Desert. && .DISCUSSION... Cooler conditions propagated across central California today as an exiting upper level shortwave trough brought northwesterly flow over the region. Afternoon temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley were around five to seven degrees below averages for this time of year. A warming trend is anticipated to set up over the region beginning this afternoon as a ridging pattern takes the place of the weakening upper level trough. Temperatures will be above normal through the upcoming week across the San Joaquin Valley as a result, even with a slight cooldown midweek. The following are probabilities from the NBM ensemble for maximum temperatures 90 degrees or warmer for Monday and Tuesday for select locations across central California. Monday Fresno 66% Visalia 66% Bakersfield 56% Delano 56% Hanford 46% Lemoore 46% Porterville 46% Madera 31% Merced 31% Reedley 26% Tuesday Bakersfield 86% Delano 86% Fresno 86% Visalia 86% Hanford 81% Lemoore 76% Porterville 71% Madera 61% Reedley 56% Merced 46% As mentioned above, a slight cooldown is expected to occur midweek as an upper level trough moving through the Pacific Northwest will have a weak influence over central California. Westerly winds will result in temperatures around two degrees above normal Wednesday afternoon with the NBM ensemble expressing a 20 to 40 percent probability to reach or exceed 90 degrees. Ensemble guidance also notes a moderate probability (greater than 60 percent) for wind gusts at or exceeding 20 miles per hour in the San Joaquin Valley north of Kern County for Wednesday afternoon. These gusty conditions are also expected to reach into the Kern County Desert and Mojave Slopes, with similar probabilities for gusts greater than 40 miles per hour. Similar conditions are conceivable in the desert areas through Friday afternoon. Cluster analysis continues to trend towards a stronger upper level ridge setting up closer to next weekend which will once again bring warmer afternoon temperatures to central California. Early indications from NBM probabilities show a moderate (30 to 60 percent) chance for temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees both Friday and Saturday afternoons. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across central California over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/25/2024 13:21 EXPIRES: 05/26/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...SM weather.gov/hanford